Read an Excerpt
Prologue: The New Science
How Simple, Predictable Principles Drive Complex Change
We are all reacting to the "great bubble" in the stock market and business and its collapse in the early 2000s, wondering why we could have been so stupid to have believed in it and if we will see growth like this again for many decades. The common wisdom is that once you've seen a "bubble" it's all over for many years or decades. But the economic and stock market recovery from late 2002 into early 2004 has caused more people to wonder if this bull market is not going to continue.
We have a clear answer: There will be another great bull market into the end of this decade that is likely to be even stronger than the 1990s bull market.
In this book we will explain why the current perception that "we've seen a bubble burst and it's over" is not true when it comes to technology bubbles, why technology bubbles are different from other bubbles in history -- and why such bubbles as well as strong consolidations and "tech wrecks" like those we have recently seen are necessary to major advances in human progress throughout history.
The truth is that there are at least two bubbles before a final peak in a major new technology expansion cycle is reached. We are forecasting the least suspected but greatest bull market in history -- similar to the greatest bull market in U.S. history that occurred from 1922 to 1929 (the Roaring Twenties) after a very similar "technology" bubble and crash from late 1919 into early 1922. We have always compared this decade to the Roaring Twenties, and the truth is that decade started off almost exactly like this one.
Scientists and economists are experts in looking at a very complex world and coming up with complex explanations for it. But we often know different from our common-sense experience. Human beings have their own individual strengths and weaknesses and use them to survive as best they can. The people we know more often than not do predictable things most of the time, just like the planets predictably revolve around the sun, and the sun comes up every morning and the tides come and go, and so on. When many human beings do such predictable things in large numbers we can predict events such as when they will die on average -- as life insurance actuaries have been doing for many decades.
But now for the first time since the early 1980s, when the first annual Consumer Expenditure Surveys were conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we can increasingly predict when people will do all types of things from growing up (at great expense to parents, the government, and businesses) to workforce entry (where they finally become productive) to earning to spending to borrowing to saving to retirement, as well as when they spend money on all types of things from cradle to grave. It simply wasn't possible to know these statistics before the recent information age began.
But in broader terms, in recent decades information technologies have allowed us to analyze all types of phenomena from the "big bang" and the evolution of our universe to the evolution of our planet and all of the flora and fauna that have developed over millions of years to the DNA code and how humans have developed and migrated around the earth over the last 80,000 years. Although we have always wanted to believe what we wanted to about the past to fit our personal, ethnic, and religious ideologies, we can increasingly see the greater reality of evolution and economic progress over long periods of time today. We have, predictably,...