The Next Great Bubble Boom

Tax Those Who Make Wild Predictions!

Even more recently, Harvey Dent's latest book "predicts" our coming "depression".

This is the same person who predicted a stock market boom in this decade, in one of his books from the late 1990's.

Let's face it, predicting, "at an event level" as I term it, is completely useless to all, except those who run successful businesses selling books or financial advice based on it.

They are simply extrapolating current events and fooling people to join in with "what's happening now" or "what's working now".

For a more reasoned analysis, please check out anything by Jack Bogle or Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

Egg on his Face

Goes to show how much these 'prophets' know, including the idiots that come on the business channels and predict where the stock market is going. They are more often wrong than right. Don't trust the 'gurus'.

wow...way to miss the boat

I didn't bother reading this book after reading the synopsis because it has already been proven to be wildly inaccurate. This book missed the mark in a huge way.

An awkwardly written look at booms and bust ahead

This bestseller has some methodology problems and it is written awkwardly, but it might nonetheless be true. Author Harry S. Dent, Jr., claims to have predicted the great stock market boom of the 1990s. He contends that demographics, economics, modern markets and information technology make the future almost surely predictable, though most experts would disagree. In fact, common knowledge challenges some of his data, such as his contention that newspapers are a growth opportunity. However, his suggestion that a stock market bubble in the first decade of this new millennium will end in a crash of historic size is a possibility worth considering. Moreover, his comments about demographic trends, especially the slowing of population growth and the graying of developing-country populations, have ample support from other sources and should be part of the calculus of any international investor. We suggest reading this intriguing book with the caveat that soothsaying is a chancy undertaking. Read this book as you would read science fiction - with the thought that, in spite of everything, it just might come true. In other words, keep Dent¿s advice in mind, but don¿t get carried away.

Entertaining read that might prove helpful.

I am no crystalball fan, but this guy's arguements are at the list scientific. They make for an interesting read. For $20, the book is worth it. You learn a lot and it all makes sense. It gives you courage to invest now. So far its worked for me, but I realize none of us knows the future absolutely, not even Mr Dent himself. My advice? Read it!

Upwardly Exploding US Stock and House Prices from 2005-2009

If you have been reading Harry S. Dent, Jr., you know that he has a real knack for taking demographic trends and turning them into investment insights. The U.S. stock, bond and real estate markets are strongly influenced by how many people are at what ages. That's because there are predictable spending levels and types of spending for each age group. For instance, young people are more likely to rent than to own and older people are more likely to buy a retirement home than a primary home. In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Mr. Dent argues persuasively that we are about to see the best markets for buying and selling stocks and residential real estate for the next several decades . . . to be followed by a very poor period of economic performance that will last for many years beginning in 2010. His demographic argument is buttressed by a look at technology cycles, historical economic and financial cycles, and various social trends. His demographic information on life cycle spending is much more developed here than in earlier books. As far as it goes, this book is a wonderful resource that anyone can use to make more money by shifting their investment focus for the next five years. I strongly recommend that you read and apply this book! What are the book's weaknesses? There are several. 1. He is overly impressed with back testing of various strategies. You will read more pages than you want to see how one focus versus another would have fared in the past. But the future is always at least a little bit different. For instance, the book doesn't look into the worldwide commodity boom and the rapidly deflating dollar . . . both of which will impact his scenarios. 2. He believes in risk adjusted returns rather than raw returns. But you cannot spend risk adjusted returns. Most people measure their wealth in the value of what they own. That often means that higher risk investments do better in boom times. 3. He doesn't think that politics matters very much, but shifts in tax policy can have a large impact on the values of various classes of assets . . . and the recent election suggests that tax policy is about to change. Stay tuned. 4. He likes the U.S. so much that he doesn't really consider the alternative investments to be very attractive, because of his sense of risk adjusted returns. For instance, even though Latin America looks great from the perspective of his tools, he says don't invest there because governments have been volatile in the past. I suspect that U.S. investments will do worse in dollar terms than investments in developing countries that export raw materials and have favorable demographics.

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