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|Preface: The Future That Has Already Happened|
|Pt. I||The Manager's Responsibilities||1|
|The Theory of the Business||3|
|The Effective Decision||19|
|How to Make People Decisions||33|
|The Big Power of Little Ideas||43|
|The Discipline of Innovation||53|
|Managing for Business Effectiveness||65|
|Pt. II||The Executive's World||81|
|The Information Executives Truly Need||83|
|The Coming of the New Organization||99|
|The New Society of Organizations||113|
|What Business Can Learn from Nonprofits||131|
|The New Productivity Challenge||143|
|Management and the World's Work||157|
|The Post-Capitalist Executive: An Interview||175|
|About the Author||201|
In human affairs -- political, social, economic, and business -- it is pointless to try to predict the future, let alone attempt to look ahead 75 years. But it is possible -- and fruitful -- to identify major events that have already happened, irrevocably, and that therefore will have predictable effects in the next decade or two. It is possible, in other words, to identify and prepare for the future that has already happened.
The dominant factor for business in the next two decades -- absent war, pestilence, or collision with a comet -- is not going to be economics or technology. It will be demographics. The key factor for business will not be the overpopulation of the world, of which we have been warned these last 40 years. It will be the increasing underpopulation of the developed countries -- Japan and those in Europe and in North America.
The developed world is in the process of committing collective national suicide. Its citizens are not producing enough babies to reproduce themselves, and the cause is quite clear. Its younger people are no longer able to bear the increasing burden of supporting a growing population of older, nonworking people. They can only offset that rising burden by cutting back at the other end of the dependence spectrum, which means having fewer or no children.
Of course, birthrates may go up again, though so far there is not the lightest sign of a new baby boom in any developed country. But even if birthrates increased overnight to the three-plus figure of the U.S. baby boom of 50 years ago, it would take 25 years before those new babies would become fully educated and productive adults. For the next 25 years, in other words, the underpopulation of the developed countries is accomplished fact and thus has the following implications for their societies and economies:
The productivity of knowledge and knowledge workers will not be the only competitive factor in the world economy. It is, however, likely to become the decisive factor, at least for most industries in the developed countries. The likelihood of this prediction holds implications for businesses and for executives.
Posted July 9, 2001
Peter F. Drucker is known as the 'guru's guru'. The articles in this book explain the reason. Each article is a landmark in the field of management. In the preface Drucker shows why he has become so famous. He shows his strength of recognising trends and how these trends will affect business, people, and society. This preface is followed by a short introduction from the editor. The book consists of two Parts, The Manager's Responsibilities and The Executive's World, with each consisting of 6 Harvard Business Review-articles (out of 32 articles and growing). The book also includes an interesting preface, an introduction by Harvard Business Review-editor Nan Stone, and an interview with Peter Drucker. In Part I - The Manager's Responsibilities, the articles discuss the managerial responsibilities of the manager, although Drucker prefers the term 'executive'. The articles discuss general management such as the decision-making process, effective management, strategic management, and innovation. Part II - The Executive's World, Drucker discusses the history of management, the transformation from the traditional command-and-control model to knowledge-based organizations, information technology, and non-profit management. The book concludes with an interview with Peter Drucker, which is based on his 1995-book 'Post-Capitalist Society'. The book deserves the five-star rating since each article is fantastic. Perhaps some of them overlap, but it is amazing that some of the articles written in the 1960s are still very valid today. Drucker's writing style is simple US-English.Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.