Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries
Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business

From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.

Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.

In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:

• draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
• tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
• replace surveys
• substitute for endless meetings

By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.
1110980755
Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries
Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business

From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.

Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.

In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:

• draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
• tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
• replace surveys
• substitute for endless meetings

By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.
25.99 In Stock
Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

by Donald N. Thompson
Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

by Donald N. Thompson

eBook

$25.99 

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Overview

Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business

From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.

Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.

In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:

• draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
• tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
• replace surveys
• substitute for endless meetings

By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781422183199
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
Publication date: 05/22/2012
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
Pages: 256
File size: 13 MB
Note: This product may take a few minutes to download.

About the Author

Donald N. Thompson is an economist and professor of marketing, emeritus, at the Schulich School of Business at York University in Toronto. He has taught at Harvard Business School and the London School of Economics. Thompson is author of nine books, including The $12 Million Stuffed Shark: The Curious Economics of Contemporary Art, which has been published in thirteen languages.

Table of Contents

Part 1 Predictions from Markets

1 The Mutual Fun Market 3

2 What Are These Prediction Markets? 13

3 Sports and Movie Markets 27

4 Election Markets 43

5 Estimation Markets 55

6 What Can Prediction Markets Replace? 67

Part 2 What Can Business Markets Do?

7 Google 83

8 Best Buy 97

9 The Technology Evangelist 109

10 Boardroom Markets 117

Part 3 Where Can Markets Take Us?

11 Way-Outside-the-Box Markets 133

Casting Calls and Epidemiology

12 Further Outside the Box 143

Terrorism Markets

13 Government Markets 157

14 Long-Term Markets 167

Part 4 Making Markets Work

15 When No One Wants to Know 179

16 More Red Flags Than Beijing 191

17 Finding the Scorpion 197

18 Becoming an Oracle 207

Postscript and Acknowledgments 217

The Legal Conundrum Facing US Prediction Markets 223

Checklist for Starting a Prediction Market 229

Prediction Market Software 233

Prediction Market Sites Worth Following 237

Further Reading 241

Index 249

About the Author 263

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