Predicting Politics

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780814250945
  • Publisher: Ohio State University Press
  • Publication date: 6/28/2002
  • Edition description: 1
  • Pages: 170
  • Product dimensions: 8.90 (w) x 6.00 (h) x 0.40 (d)

Table of Contents

Preface
1 Predicting Politics 1
Organization of the Book 4
A Shift from Realism? 6
Why Game Theory Analysis? 9
Social Forces as Context 14
Conclusion 25
2 Path Interdependence: An Illustration 26
Text of the Concordat of Worms 27
The Power of the Pope 28
A Brief Historical Review 30
The Model 32
Implications for Pope and King 39
Narrative Account of Evidence 40
The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment 45
Summary 48
3 Tools for Predicting Politics 50
Logical Foundation of the Model 51
Estimating the Model 60
Developing the Data 67
Model Output 69
Prediction and International Relations 71
Limitations 77
4 The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property 78
Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution 79
Predicting the Cold War's End 83
Counterfactual Histories 91
Conclusions 97
5 Global Democratization 98
Helsinki: The New International Environment 100
The Global Swing toward Democracy 102
EUM and Governance, 1980-2000 104
EUM and the Future of Democratization 109
Random Shocks and Robustness 113
6 Democratization and Domestic Pressures 116
Simulating Russia's Future 116
Simulating China's Future 122
7 War in the Future 133
Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income 133
Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration 139
Democracy, War, and the Future 140
Flash Points and the Future 146
Conclusions 149
Appendix 153
Endnotes 157
References 161
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