Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale


<p>Predictions about where different species are, where they are not, and how they move across a landscape or respond to human activities - if timber is harvested, for instance, or stream flow altered - are important aspects of the work of wildlife biologists, land managers, and the agencies and policymakers that govern natural resources. Despite the increased use and importance of model predictions, these predictions are seldom tested and have unknown levels of accuracy.<p>Predicting Species Occurrences addresses those concerns,
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<p>Predictions about where different species are, where they are not, and how they move across a landscape or respond to human activities - if timber is harvested, for instance, or stream flow altered - are important aspects of the work of wildlife biologists, land managers, and the agencies and policymakers that govern natural resources. Despite the increased use and importance of model predictions, these predictions are seldom tested and have unknown levels of accuracy.<p>Predicting Species Occurrences addresses those concerns, highlighting for managers and researchers the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, as well as the magnitude of the research required to improve or test predictions of currently used models. The book is an outgrowth of an international symposium held in October 1999 that brought together scientists and researchers at the forefront of efforts to process information about species at different spatial and temporal scales. It is a comprehensive reference that offers an exhaustive treatment of the subject, with 65 chapters by leading experts from around the world that: <ul> <li>review the history of the theory and practice of modeling and present a standard terminology <li>examine temporal and spatial scales in terms of their influence on patterns and processes of species distribution <li>offer detailed discussions of state-of-the-art modeling tools and descriptions of methods for assessing model accuracy <li>discuss how to predict species presence and abundance <li>present examples of how spatially explicit data on demographics can provide important information for managers</ul> An introductory chapter by Michael A. Huston examines the ecological context in which predictions of species occurrences are made, and a concluding chapter by John A. Wiens offers an insightful review and synthesis of the topics examined along with guidance for future directions and cautions regarding misuse of models. Other contributors include Michael P. Austin, Barry R. Noon, Alan H. Fielding, Michael Goodchild, Brian A. Maurer, John T. Rotenberry, Paul Angermeier, Pierre R. Vernier, and more than a hundred others.<p>Predicting Species Occurrences offers important new information about many of the topics raised in the seminal volume Wildlife 2000 (University of Wisconsin Press, 1986) and will be the standard reference on this subject for years to come. Its state-of-the-art assessment will play a key role in guiding the continued development and application of tools for making accurate predictions and is an indispensable volume for anyone engaged in species management or conservation.
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Editorial Reviews

Boone and Crockett Professor of Wildlife Conservation, University of Montana - Jack Ward Thomas
"The need for land managers to predict species occurrences relative to habitat change has mushroomed in response to the National Environmental Policy Act, the Endangered Species Act, and U.S. Forest Service planning regulations. Predicting Species Occurrences is the most thorough treatment yet of this planning and assessment approach, particularly as related to the greatly enhanced approaches to accuracy and scale conditions. This book is a dramatic leap forward."
From The Critics
This volume highlights, for managers and researchers, the strengths and weakness of current approaches to predicting species occurrences, as well as the extent of the research required to improve or test predictions of currently used models. From an international symposium, 65 contributions discuss the conceptual framework, temporal and spatial scales, modeling tools and accuracy assessment, predicting species presence and abundance, predicting species populations and productivity, and future directions. Color and b&w maps and diagrams support the text. Edited by Scott (research biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey) Patricia J. Heglund (biological sciences, U. of Idaho), and Michael L. Morrison (biology, U. of Arizona and Sacramento State U.) Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781559637879
  • Publisher: Island Press
  • Publication date: 2/28/2002
  • Edition description: 1
  • Pages: 840
  • Product dimensions: 8.70 (w) x 11.20 (h) x 1.80 (d)

Table of Contents

Introduction 1
Introductory Essay: Critical Issues for Improving Predictions 7
Pt. 1 Conceptual Framework
Introduction to Part 1: The Conceptual Basis of Species Ditribution Modeling: Time for a Paradigm Shift? 25
Ch. 1 Foundations of Species-Environment Relations 35
Ch. 2 Standard Terminology: Toward a Common Language to Advance Ecological Understanding and Application 43
Ch. 3 Linking Populations, and Habitats: Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going? 53
Ch. 4 Approaches to Habitat Modeling: The Tensions between Pattern and Process and between Specificity and Generality 63
Ch. 5 Case Studies of the Use of Environmental Gradients in Vegetation and Fauna Modeling: Theory and Practice in Australia and New Zealand 73
Ch. 6 Habitat Models Based on Numerical Comparisons 83
Ch. 7 The Role of Category Definition in Habitat Models: Practical and Logical Limitations of Using Boolean, Indexed, Probabilistic, and Fuzzy Categories 97
Ch. 8 Use of Regional-scale Exploratory Studies to Determine Bird-habitat Relationships 107
Pt. 2 Temporal and Spatial Scales
Introduction to Part 2: Role of Temporal and Spatial Scale 123
Ch. 9 Predicting Distribution and Abundance: Thinking within and between Scales 125
Ch. 10 A Comparison of Fine- and Coarse-resolution Environmental Variables Toward Predicting Vegetation Distribution in the Mojave Desert 133
Ch. 11 The Influence of Spatial Scale on Landscape Pattern Description and Wildlife Habitat Assessment 141
Ch. 12 Predicting the Occurrence of Amphibians: An Assessment of Multiple-scale Models 157
Ch. 13 Dynamic Patterns of Association between Environmental Factors and Island Use by Breeding Seabirds 171
Ch. 14 Geographic Modeling of Temporal Variability in Habitat Quality of the Yellow-billed Cuckoo on the Sacramento River, Miles 196-219, California 183
Ch. 15 Effects of Spatial Scale on the Predictive Ability of Habitat Models for the Green Woodpecker in Switzerland 197
Ch. 16 Wildlife Habitat Modeling in an Adaptive Framework: The Role of Alternative Models 205
Ch. 17 Contrasting Determinants of Abundance in Ancestral and Colonized Ranges of an Invasive Brood Parasite 219
Ch. 18 Biodiversity Conflict Analysis at Multiple Spatial Scales 229
Ch. 19 A Collaborative Approach in Adaptive Management at a Large-landscape Scale 241
Ch. 20 Modeling Wildlife Distribution within Urbanized Environments: An Example of the Eurasian Badger Meles meles L. in Britain 255
Pt. 3 Modeling Tools and Accuracy Assessment
Introduction to Part 3: Modeling Tools and Accuracy Assessment 265
Ch. 21 What Are the Appropriate Characteristics of an Accuracy Measure? 271
Ch. 22 A Minimalist Approach to Mapping Species' Habitat: Pearson's Planes of Closest Fit 281
Ch. 23 Geospatial Data in Time: Limits and Prospects for Predicting Species Occurrences 291
Ch. 24 Predictions and Their Validation: Rare Plants in the Central Highlands, Victoria, Australia 303
Ch. 25 Semiquantitative Models for Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Plant Species 315
Ch. 26 Patch-based Models to Predict Species Occurrence: Lessons from Salmonid Fishes in Streams 327
Ch. 27 Autologistic Regression Modeling of American Woodcock Habitat Use with Spatially Dependent Data 335
Ch. 28 A Neural Network Model for Predicting Northern Bobwhite Abundance in the Rolling Red Plains of Oklahoma 345
Ch. 29 Incorporating Detection Uncertainty into Presence-Absence Surveys for Marbled Murrelet 357
Ch. 30 Accuracy of Bird Range Maps Based on Habitat Maps and Habitat Relationship Models 367
Ch. 31 A Monte Carlo Experiment for Species Mapping Problems 377
Ch. 32 Measuring Prediction Uncertainty in Models of Species Distribution 383
Ch. 33 Toward Better Atlases: Improving Presence-absence Information 391
Ch. 34 Predicting the Distributions of Songbirds in Forests of Central Wisconsin 399
Ch. 35 Poisson Regression: A Better Approach to Modeling Abundance Data? 411
Ch. 36 Predicting Vertebrate Occurrences from Species Habitat Associations: Improving the Interpretation of Commission Error Rates 419
Ch. 37 Assessment of Spatial Autocorrelation in Empirical Models in Ecology 429
Ch. 38 Ranked Modeling of Small Mammals Based on Capture Data 441
Ch. 39 Calibration Methodology for an Individual-based, Spatially Explicit Simulation Model: Case Study of White-tailed Deer in the Florida Everglades 447
Pt. 4 Predicting Species Presence and Abundance
Introduction to Part 4: Predicting Species Presence and Abundance 461
Ch. 40 Multimodeling: New Approaches for Linking Ecological Models 467
Ch. 41 Challenges of Modeling Fungal Habitat: When and Where Do You Find Chanterelles? 475
Ch. 42 Predicting Presence/Absence of Plant Species for Range Mapping: A Case Study from Wyoming 483
Ch. 43 A Model to Predict the Occurrence of Surviving Butternut Trees in the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains 491
Ch. 44 Predicting Meadow Communities and Species Occurrences in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem 499
Ch. 45 Modeling Species Richness and Habitat Suitability for Taxa of Conservation Interest 507
Ch. 46 Discontinuity in Stream-fish Distributions: Implications for Assessing and Predicting Species Occurrence 519
Ch. 47 A GIS-based Habitat Model for Wood Thrush, Hylocichla mustelina, in Great Smoky Mountains National Park 529
Ch. 48 Controlling Bias in Biodiversity Data 537
Ch. 49 Modeling Cowbird Occurrences and Parasitism Rates: Statistical and Individual-based Approaches 547
Ch. 50 Modeling Bird Abundance from Forest Inventory Data in the Boreal Mixed-wood Forests of Canada 559
Ch. 51 Species Commonness and the Accuracy of Habitat-relationship Models 573
Ch. 52 Spatial Analysis of Stopover Habitats of Neotropical Migrant Birds 581
Ch. 53 Effects of Niche Width on the Performance and Agreement of Avian Habitat Models 593
Ch. 54 A Test and Comparison of Wildlife-habitat Modeling Techniques for Predicting Bird Occurence at a Regional Scale 607
Ch. 55 Distributional Prediction Based on Ecological Niche Modeling of Primary Occurrence Data 617
Ch. 56 Statistical Mapping of Count Survey Data 625
Ch. 57 Influence of Selected Environmental Variables on GIS-habitat Models Used for Gap Analysis 639
Ch. 58 A Distribution Model for the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in the Jura Mountains, Switzerland 653
Pt. 5 Predicting Species: Populations and Productivity
Introduction to Part 5: Mapping a Chimera? 663
Ch. 59 Functional Definition of Landscape Structure Using a Gradient-based Approach 667
Ch. 60 Modeling Habitat-based Viability from Organism to Population 673
Ch. 61 Relations between Canopy Cover and the Occurrence and Productivity of California Spotted Owls 687
Ch. 62 Using a Spatially Explicit Model to Analyze Effects of Habitat Management on Northern Spotted Owls 701
Ch. 63 Estimating the Effective Area of Habitat Patches in Heterogeneous Landscapes 713
Ch. 64 Demographic Monitoring and the Identification of Transients in Mark-recapture Models 727
Pt. 6 Future Directions
Ch. 65 Predicting Species Occurrences: Progress, Problems, and Prospects 739
Literature Cited 751
Contributors 837
Index 847
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