The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

3.5 25
by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
     
 

ISBN-10: 1400067871

ISBN-13: 9781400067879

Pub. Date: 09/29/2009

Publisher: Random House Publishing Group

Game theory is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. A master practitioner whose forecasts have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. In

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Overview

Game theory is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. A master practitioner whose forecasts have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. In this revelatory book, he shares his methods. Bueno de Mesquita games a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts, from the North Korean disarmament talks to the Middle East peace process; provides successful strategies to combat both global warming and terror; and shows how game theory can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit, elect the CEO of your company, or simply buy a car. Savvy and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer's Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life's game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9781400067879
Publisher:
Random House Publishing Group
Publication date:
09/29/2009
Pages:
272
Product dimensions:
5.80(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.20(d)

Table of Contents

Introduction ix

1 What Will It Take to Put You in This Car Today? 3

2 Game Theory 101 10

3 Game Theory 102 29

4 Bombs Away 47

5 Napkins for Peace: Defining the Question 66

6 Engineering the Future 86

7 Fast-Forward the Present 103

8 How to Predict the Unpredictable 124

9 Fun with the Past 140

10 Dare to Be Embarrassed! 171

11 The Big Sweep: The History of Worms, or Bali High, Bali Low 203

Acknowledgments 227

Appendices 231

Afterword to the Paperback Edition 235

Appendix to the Paperback Edition 243

Notes 249

Index 255

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Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future 3.5 out of 5 based on 1 ratings. 25 reviews.
RolfDobelli More than 1 year ago
Game theorist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has a successful record of applying game theory to predicting the outcome of critical foreign policy issues. Among his other accomplishments, the author achieved a 90% accuracy rate in forecasts for the U.S. government, often about the future direction of other countries. In this book, he applies game-theory analyses to complex questions about such public policy issues as the development of nuclear weapons in North Korea, the potential for Iraq to ally with Iran, and the risk of a major war between Israelis and Palestinians. To illustrate the numerical framework of games, Bueno de Mesquita also features examples that model mundane behavior, such as shopping for cars or choosing which movie to watch. Though the book is thick with passages that focus on foreign policy, getAbstract nonetheless recommends it to executives who want to learn how experts use game theory to predict and engineer the future.
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