Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings

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Amos Tversky (1937—1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making.

He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics.This book collects forty ofTversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months ofTversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. ThePreferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk andUncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.

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What People Are Saying

From the Publisher
"Amos Tversky was one of the most important social scientists of the last century.

This extraordinary collection demonstrates his range and brilliance, and in particular his genius for showing how and why human intuitions go wrong. Is there a 'hot hand' in basketball? Is arthritis pain related to the weather? Why do we exaggerate certain risks? Why are some conflicts so hard to resolve? Tversky's answers will surprise you. Indispensable reading, and full of implications, for everyone interested in social science." Cass R. Sunstein, Law School and Department of PoliticalScience, University of Chicago

"Amos Tversky may have shown that basketball players do not have 'hot hands,' but he proved the opposite for psychologists. Tversky always made his basket, and in the process changed psychology, and also economics, forever." George Akerlof, Koshland Professor of Economics,University of California, Berkeley, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780262201445
  • Publisher: MIT Press
  • Publication date: 12/1/2003
  • Series: Bradford Books Series
  • Pages: 1039
  • Product dimensions: 7.00 (w) x 9.00 (h) x 2.10 (d)

Meet the Author

Eldar Shafir is Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs at Princeton University.

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Table of Contents

Introduction and Biography
Similarity 1
1 Features of Similarity 7
2 Additive Similarity Trees 47
3 Studies of Similarity 75
4 Weighting Common and Distinctive Features in Perceptual and Conceptual Judgments 97
5 Nearest Neighbor Analysis of Psychological Spaces 129
6 On the Relation between Common and Distinctive Feature Models 171
Judgment 187
7 Belief in the Law of Small Numbers 193
8 Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 203
9 Extensional vs. Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment 221
10 The Cold Facts about the "Hot Hand" in Basketball 257
11 The "Hot Hand": Statistical Reality or Cognitive Illusion? 269
12 The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence 275
13 On the Evaluation of Probability Judgments: Calibration, Resolution, and Monotonicity 301
14 Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability 329
15 On the Belief That Arthritis Pain Is Related to the Weather 377
16 Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory 383
Preference 403
Probabilistic Models of Choice 411
17 On the Optimal Number of Alternatives at a Choice Point 413
18 Substitutability and Similarity in Binary Choices 419
19 The Intransitivity of Preferences 433
20 Elimination by Aspects: A Theory of Choice 463
21 Preference Trees 493
Choice under Risk and Uncertainty 547
22 Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 549
23 On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies 583
24 Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions 593
25 Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice 621
26 Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty 645
27 Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty 673
28 Thinking through Uncertainty: Nonconsequential Reasoning and Choice 703
29 Conflict Resolution: A Cognitive Perspective 729
30 Weighing Risk and Uncertainty 747
31 Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance 777
32 A Belief-Based Account of Decision under Uncertainty 795
Contingent Preferences 823
33 Self-Deception and the Voter's Illusion 825
34 Contingent Weighting in Judgment and Choice 845
35 Anomalies: Preference Reversals 875
36 Discrepancy between Medical Decisions for Individual Patients and for Groups 887
37 Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model 895
38 Endowment and Contrast in Judgments of Well-Being 917
39 Reason-Based Choice 937
40 Context-Dependence in Legal Decision Making 963
Amos Tversky's Complete Bibliography 995
Index 1001
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