Preparing for the Twenty-First Century

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Overview

Kennedy's groundbreaking book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers helped to reorder the current priorities of the United States. Now, he synthesizes extensive research on fields ranging from demography to robotics to draw a detailed, persuasive, and often sobering map of the very near future--a bold work that bridges the gap between history, prophecy, and policy.
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Overview

Kennedy's groundbreaking book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers helped to reorder the current priorities of the United States. Now, he synthesizes extensive research on fields ranging from demography to robotics to draw a detailed, persuasive, and often sobering map of the very near future--a bold work that bridges the gap between history, prophecy, and policy.

Editorial Reviews

Publishers Weekly
As the next century dawns, the world faces interactive problems, writes Yale historian Kennedy ( The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers ). These include the population explosion, technology's replacement of traditional jobs, worsening environmental degradation that jeopardizes economic growth, the dominance of multinational corporations freed from local roots and the widening gulf between rich and poor nations. This valuable book assesses the consequences of these forces on Europe, China, India, other developing nations, the former U.S.S.R., the U.S. and Japan. Kennedy identifies the nations well-positioned for the 21st century: Japan, Korea, Germany, Switzerland and Scandinavia. The European Community as a whole is also well-prepared. He warns that adaptation demands greater emphasis on education and stronger political leadership, which is capable of transforming entrenched structures and ideas. Author tour. (Mar.)
Library Journal
In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus wrote his famous treatise Essay on Population in which he gloomily contemplated the future of the West as it fell beneath the crush of overpopulation. Technology and emigration saved 19th-century England from Malthus's dire warnings. Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers ( LJ 12/87), focuses his new book on a reexamination of the age-old question of whether humanity can still survive the chronic crisis of reproducing beyond its resources. Projecting a world population of nearly ten billion by the middle of the next century, Kennedy analyzes the political, social, environmental, and economic results of continued population growth. Although not entirely pessimistic about our chances of success, Kennedy presents an abundance of statistical and empirical information to get the reader's attention. A gifted historian and writer of Big History, Kennedy provides an important analysis of our future. Highly recommended. Previewed in Prepub Alert, LJ 10/1/92.-- Ed Goedeken, Iowa State Univ., Ames, Ia.
More Reviews (2) Fewer Reviews
Mary Carroll
Yale diplomatic historian Kennedy produced a surprise bestseller in "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" (1987), his analysis of "global overreach" as a pattern in world history. That precedent and aggressive promotion will generate interest in this survey of millenial trends and consequences. Kennedy focuses on the power and probable impacts of six major interlocking factors: population growth; globalized communications and corporate and financial structures; biotechnology in agriculture; robotics and other forms of automation in manufacturing; environmental problems; and the "relocation of authority" from nation-states to "both larger (transnational) and smaller (regional, ethnic) units." He then analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of each region in confronting the changes we face. Kennedy thoughtfully synthesizes the work of scholars in dozens of fields in reaching the conclusion that preparation for the twenty-first century will require "nothing less than the reeducation of humankind," a thorough reevaluation of the position of women, and unusually far-sighted political leadership. Kennedy's trends are fairly familiar and most of his notions of "what works" conform to Western, liberal orthodoxy, but his crystal gazing is notable for its complexity of vision and its understanding of the past, which conditions his concerns about the future.
Kirkus Reviews
After reading this gloomy exercise in futurology, even the most cockeyed optimists will feel justified in hiding under their bedcovers as the turn of the century approaches. Kennedy (History/Yale Univ.) explores again, with wider and more contemporary applications, a principal theme of his controversial bestseller, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1987): that we must factor nonmilitary elements into traditional equations of national security. Kennedy can be provocative and prescient: his notion of "global overreach" in that earlier book, for instance, was borne out by the collapse of the Soviet Union and by the severe strains on the American economy. This time, he attempts to show how transnational forces, beyond the control of individual countries, inevitably will create world instability. Behind this unrest is a Malthusian population explosion (the world had 2 billion inhabitants in 1925, compared with 5.3 billion in 1990) that will be exacerbated by environmental dangers, the new global economy, robotics, and biotechnology. Kennedy guesses who the winners and losers will be in this changed world (Japan, with its highly educated, cohesive population and technological orientation, will fare better than the US, with its aging, multiethnic populace). Even the industrialized North will not be immune from the mass migrations and deteriorating environment of the Third World. Kennedy is most insightful in pointing out overlooked factors underlying crises: the fast-growing, youthful, impatient masses behind the Intifada and the troubles of Northern Ireland, for example, or the loss of forests and topsoil fueling the Haitian migration to the US. He regards economic growth asa zero-sum game that will damage an environmentally fragile planet, however, and he offers few remedies to avert the catastrophes he sees looming. Brilliant and discerning on the inevitable pressures on the rich North from the developing world (e.g., from Somalia)—but only hard-core Cassandras will accept Kennedy's pessimism about nations' inability to mobilize the will or resources to change the planet.

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780394584430
  • Publisher: Random House Publishing Group
  • Publication date: 2/9/1993
  • Pages: 512
  • Product dimensions: 6.52 (w) x 9.57 (h) x 1.37 (d)

Table of Contents

Foreword and Acknowledgments
Tables and Charts
Pt. 1 General Trends
1 Prologue: Old Challenges and New Challenges 3
2 The Demographic Explosion 21
3 The Communications and Financial Revolution and the Rise of the Multinational Corporation 47
4 World Agriculture and the Biotechnology Revolution 65
5 Robotics, Automation, and a New Industrial Revolution 82
6 The Dangers to Our Natural Environment 95
7 The Future of the Nation-State 122
Pt. 2 Regional Impacts
8 The Japanese "Plan" for a Post-2000 World 137
9 India and China 163
10 Winners and Losers in the Developing World 193
11 The Erstwhile USSR and Its Crumbled Empire 228
12 Europe and the Future 255
13 The American Dilemma 290
Pt. 3 Conclusion
14 Preparing for the Twenty-first Century 329
Appendix: Human Development Index 351
Notes 353
Bibliography 389
Index 407

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