A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence / Edition 1

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A Bayesian analysis of the murder charges against Sacco and Vanzetti based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. Applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case which is perhaps one of the most controversial in American legal history. Uses modern computation techniques to demonstrate how items of evidence in a complicated case can relate to one another. 28 charts illustrate the chains of reasoning in defense of the relevance of evidentiary matters plus a listing of trial witnesses. References include approximately 300 entries from such fields as probability theory, history, law, artificial intelligence, psychology and literature.
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Editorial Reviews

A Bayesain analysis of evidence in and after the controversial 1921 trial in which two anarchists were convicted of murder. Drawing on the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment, applies modern computation methods to inference networks to show how the inferential force of evidence in a complicated case can be graded. The methodology would interest statisticians in law, history, and the social sciences. Comes to verdicts of innocent and not proven. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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Product Details

Meet the Author

JOSEPH B. KADANE is Leonard J. Savage Professor of Statistics and Social Sciences in the Department of Statistics at the Carnegie Mellon University. In 1993 he was cowinner of the Frank Wilcoxon Award. Professor Kadane is the author of Bayesian Methods and Ethics in a Clinical Trial Design and coauthor of Statistics and the Law (Wiley).

DAVID A. SCHUM is Professor of Information Technology and Engineering and Professor of Law at George Mason University. A Fellow of the American Psychological Association, he is the author of Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning (Wiley).

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Table of Contents

1 Different Wine in an Old Bottle 1
2 A Standpoint for Our Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence 28
3 Chains of Reasoning from a Mass of Evidence 66
4 Grading the Probative Force of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence 116
5 Probabilistic Analyses: Issues and Methods 158
6 Probabilistic Analyses: Judgments and Stories 184
7 Probabilistic Analyses of Evidence in Various Disciplines 241
8 Final Thoughts about Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti 280
Appendix A. Wigmore Evidence Charts and Key Lists for the Trial and Post-Trial Evidence 285
Appendix B. Trial Witnesses List 338
Appendix C. Probabilistic Story Ingredients in Words 343
References 351
Index 359
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