Psychology of Intelligence Analysis / Edition 1

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis / Edition 1

by Richard J. Heuer Jr.
     
 

ISBN-10: 1594546797

ISBN-13: 9781594546792

Pub. Date: 07/28/2005

Publisher: Novinka Books

With intelligence now getting a front-row seat in governments around the world, this book is especially timely. Intelligence rains in, but without an understanding of the nature of the intelligence, it accumulates in puddles of obscurity. The problems therefore seem to be how to obtain it, how to understand it, and how to sell it to one's bosses. This book deals

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Overview

With intelligence now getting a front-row seat in governments around the world, this book is especially timely. Intelligence rains in, but without an understanding of the nature of the intelligence, it accumulates in puddles of obscurity. The problems therefore seem to be how to obtain it, how to understand it, and how to sell it to one's bosses. This book deals with how to understand it. Three fundamental points are at the heart of this presentation about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. This book was first issued by the CIA.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9781594546792
Publisher:
Novinka Books
Publication date:
07/28/2005
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
216
Sales rank:
687,804
Product dimensions:
5.30(w) x 8.30(h) x 0.50(d)

Table of Contents

Introduction : improving intelligence analysis at CIA : Dick Heuer's contribution to intelligence analysis1
Ch. 1Thinking about thinking15
Ch. 2Perception : why can't we see what is there to be seen?21
Ch. 3Memory : how do we remember what we know?31
Ch. 4Strategies for analytical judgment : transcending the limits of incomplete information47
Ch. 5Do you really need more information?65
Ch. 6Keeping an open mind77
Ch. 7Structuring analytical problems95
Ch. 8Analysis of competing hypotheses105
Ch. 9What are cognitive biases?121
Ch. 10Biases in evaluation of evidence125
Ch. 11Biases in perception of cause and effect135
Ch. 12Biases in estimating probabilities153
Ch. 13Hindsight biases in evaluation of intelligence reporting165
Ch. 14Improving intelligence analysis179

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