Psychology of Intelligence Analysis / Edition 1

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Overview

With intelligence now getting a front-row seat in governments around the world, this book is especially timely. Intelligence rains in, but without an understanding of the nature of the intelligence, it accumulates in puddles of obscurity. The problems therefore seem to be how to obtain it, how to understand it, and how to sell it to one's bosses. This book deals with how to understand it. Three fundamental points are at the heart of this presentation about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. This book was first issued by the CIA
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781594546792
  • Publisher: Novinka Books
  • Publication date: 7/28/2005
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 216
  • Sales rank: 574,367
  • Product dimensions: 5.30 (w) x 8.30 (h) x 0.50 (d)

Table of Contents

Introduction : improving intelligence analysis at CIA : Dick Heuer's contribution to intelligence analysis 1
Ch. 1 Thinking about thinking 15
Ch. 2 Perception : why can't we see what is there to be seen? 21
Ch. 3 Memory : how do we remember what we know? 31
Ch. 4 Strategies for analytical judgment : transcending the limits of incomplete information 47
Ch. 5 Do you really need more information? 65
Ch. 6 Keeping an open mind 77
Ch. 7 Structuring analytical problems 95
Ch. 8 Analysis of competing hypotheses 105
Ch. 9 What are cognitive biases? 121
Ch. 10 Biases in evaluation of evidence 125
Ch. 11 Biases in perception of cause and effect 135
Ch. 12 Biases in estimating probabilities 153
Ch. 13 Hindsight biases in evaluation of intelligence reporting 165
Ch. 14 Improving intelligence analysis 179
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