Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

by Richards J. Heuer

Overview

2021 Reprint of 1999 Edition. Full facsimile of the original edition. Not reproduced with Optical Recognition software. This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. The essays selected are the most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. The articles are intended to help the intelligence analysts understand and interpreted the issues that most intelligence analysts face.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781684225934
Publisher:	Martino Fine Books
Publication date:	08/30/2021
Pages:	216
Sales rank:	688,307
Product dimensions:	6.14(w) x 9.21(h) x 0.63(d)

About the Author

CC: Richards J. Heuer, Jr., worked for the CIA for nearly 45 years-first as a staff officer from 1951 until his retirement in 1979, and then as a contractor on a variety of projects until 1995. He began his career in the Directorate of Operations and later transferred to the Directorate of Intelligence, where he headed the unit working on analytic methods in the Office of Political Analysis. He went on to work as a consultant for the Department of Defense Personnel Security Research Center in Monterey, California.
Mr. Heuer was awarded the Agency Seal Medallion in 1987 for developing and teaching an innovative methodology for addressing complex and challenging problems facing the intelligence community. He was recognized in 1988 for his "outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence," and again in 1996 for "superior accomplishment." In addition to his work on the psychology of intelligence analysis, Mr. Heuer is a published author on counterintelligence, deception, analytical methodology, and personnel security issues.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Author's Preface
• Foreword by Douglas MacEachin
• Introduction by Jack Davis
• PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
• Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
• Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?
• Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
• PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING
• Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information
• Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
• Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
• Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
• Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
• PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
• Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?
• Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
• Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
• Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities
• Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
• PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
• Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence