The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

5.0 1
by Scott Plous
     
 

ISBN-10: 0877229139

ISBN-13: 9780877229131

Pub. Date: 09/01/1994

Publisher: Temple University Press

Americans are faced with a bewildering array of choices. In this lively introduction to psychological research on how people make decisions, Scott Plous focuses on the social aspects of decision making and includes everyday examples from medicine, law, business, education, and nuclear arms control, among other areas. Intended for nonspecialists, this book highlights…  See more details below

Overview

Americans are faced with a bewildering array of choices. In this lively introduction to psychological research on how people make decisions, Scott Plous focuses on the social aspects of decision making and includes everyday examples from medicine, law, business, education, and nuclear arms control, among other areas. Intended for nonspecialists, this book highlights experimental findings rather than psychological theory and presents information in descriptive prose rather than through mathematics. A unique feature of the volume is the "Reader Survey" that precedes the first chapter. Readers are asked to answer questions that are taken from studies discussed later in the book. This brief (and entertaining) exercise allows readers to compare their answers with the responses people gave in the original studies and to better understand their own processes of choosing. In a comprehensive yet nontechnical presentation, Plous explores the building blocks of judgment and decision making: perception, memory, context, and question format. He contrasts historical models of decision making with recent models that take into account various biases in judgment. In addition, the author examines judgments made by and about groups and discusses common traps in judgment and decision making. Not only does he suggest ways to improve decision making, but he offers the following pledge to readers not yet familiar with research on judgment and decision making: "By judiciously applying the results described in this book, you should be better able to avoid decision biases, errors, and traps, and you will better understand the decisions made by other people."

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780877229131
Publisher:
Temple University Press
Publication date:
09/01/1994
Pages:
302

Table of Contents

Forword
Preface
Reader Survey1
Sect. IPerception, Memory, and Context13
Ch. 1Selective Perception15
Ch. 2Cognitive Dissonance22
Ch. 3Memory and Hindsight Biases31
Ch. 4Context Dependence38
Sect. IIHow Questions Affect Answers49
Ch. 5Plasticity51
Ch. 6The Effects of Question Wording and Framing64
Sect. IIIModels of Decision Making77
Ch. 7Expected Utility Theory79
Ch. 8Paradoxes in Rationality84
Ch. 9Descriptive Models of Decision Making94
Sect. IVHeuristics and Biases107
Ch. 10The Representativeness Heuristic109
Ch. 11The Availability Heuristic121
Ch. 12Probability and Risk131
Ch. 13Anchoring and Adjustment145
Ch. 14The Perception of Randomness153
Ch. 15Correlation, Causation, and Control162
Ch. 16Attention Theory174
Sect. VThe Social Side of Judgment and Decision Making189
Ch. 17Social Influences191
Ch. 18Group Judgments and Decisions205
Sect. VICommon Traps215
Ch. 19Overconfidence217
Ch. 20Self-Fulfilling Prophecies231
Ch. 21Behavioral Traps241
Afteword: Taking a Step Back253
Further Reading262
References264
Credits293
Author Index295
Subject Index299

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The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making 5 out of 5 based on 0 ratings. 1 reviews.
RolfDobelli More than 1 year ago
Making the right decisions is seldom easy. Situations change and choices confound. Faulty perceptions and biases can block clear thinking and undermine the ability to weigh alternatives rationally. As U.S. Supreme Court Justice Benjamin N. Cardozo explained 90 years ago, "We may try to see things as objectively as we please. Nonetheless, we can never see them with any eyes except our own." This is the vexing paradox involved in making decisions: People who are in the process of deciding cannot always trust their own perceptions and thought processes. Psychologist Scott Plous, winner of numerous awards and honors, examines decision making in this rigorously scientific yet mostly accessible book, itself an award winner. getAbstract believes it will interest decision analysts, researchers, psychologists and strategists, as well as readers who want to know why they may make poor decisions and how to make better ones.