Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000

Overview

This study estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) for the Group of Seven (G7) countries for 1995 and 2000. Three developments motivate this new analysis.

First, there have been large swings in all G7 currencies in the last five years and in these circumstances, the markets and policymakers need some idea of sustainable levels for their currencies. The second development is the prospect of a European Monetary Union (EMU). Countries that enter the EMU must do so ...

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Overview

This study estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) for the Group of Seven (G7) countries for 1995 and 2000. Three developments motivate this new analysis.

First, there have been large swings in all G7 currencies in the last five years and in these circumstances, the markets and policymakers need some idea of sustainable levels for their currencies. The second development is the prospect of a European Monetary Union (EMU). Countries that enter the EMU must do so at exchange rates that are close to equilibrium levels; if they do not, they will eventually have to undertake costly deflation or inflation to bring their real exchange rate to its underlying level.

Third, the EMU will be the most important event in the evolution of the international monetary system for some time. Hence the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar will be of considerable significance. This study provides the first estimate of the FEER for the Euro, in the hope of promoting a more stable global environment when it is introduced.

The authors estimate equilibrium real exchange rates using a partial-equilibrium model based on econometric trade equations, assumptions of trend output, and estimates of the medium-run current account. They emphasize that the FEER is a medium-run construct and show why it is superior to the purchasing price parity (PPP) method. The authors discuss the links between the FEER and fiscal policy and the extent to which the FEER is a normative concept and conclude with sensitivity analysis for changes in current account and trend GDP assumptions.

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Product Details

Table of Contents

Preface vii
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction 1
1 What are Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? 3
The Medium Term 4
Purchasing Power Parity 9
Hysteresis 13
2 Why Calculate FEERs? 15
The FEER and Fiscal Policy 15
Is the FEER a Normative Concept? 17
The FEER as a Forecast 19
FEERS and Exchange Rate Regimes 21
3 How to Calculate FEERs 23
The Costs of Simplification 25
Modeling Aggregate Trade 28
Limitations of the Demand-Curve Trade-Volume Specification 29
Modeling Debt Interest Flows 32
4 Estimating Trade Elasticities 35
Estimation Techniques 35
Estimates of Trade Volume Elasticities 40
Trade-Price Equations 47
Assumptions About Trend Output 49
5 FEER Estimates 55
Trend Current Account for 1995:H1 55
FEERs in 1995:H1 58
FEERs in 2000 63
FEERs and Current Parities 65
Implications for the Euro/US Dollar Rate 67
Sensitivity 68
Conclusions 69
Appendix A Current Account Targets 75
References for Appendix A 117
Appendix B Modeling the Impact of the Real Exchange Rate 119
Appendix C Estimation Details 127
Appendix D Data and Data Sources 159
References 165
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