Reflections on Monetarism: Britain's Vain Search for a Successful Economic Strategy

Overview

The last 20 years have seen severe macro-economic instability in Britain, with three extreme and highly damaging boom-bust cycles. Professor Tim Congdon, one of the City's most well-known commentators, has been an influential critic of successive governments' failures in economic policy throughout this period. Reflections on Monetarism brings together his most important academic papers and journalism, including his remarkably prescient series of articles in The Times from 1985 to 1988 forecasting that the Lawson ...
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Overview

The last 20 years have seen severe macro-economic instability in Britain, with three extreme and highly damaging boom-bust cycles. Professor Tim Congdon, one of the City's most well-known commentators, has been an influential critic of successive governments' failures in economic policy throughout this period. Reflections on Monetarism brings together his most important academic papers and journalism, including his remarkably prescient series of articles in The Times from 1985 to 1988 forecasting that the Lawson credit boom would wreck the Thatcher Government's reputation for sound financial management. He presents a powerful argument that the root cause of Britain's economic instability has been the volatile growth of credit and the money supply. Reflections on Monetarism recommends that in the future Britain must maintain more stable monetary growth.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781852787660
  • Publisher: Elgar, Edward Publishing, Inc.
  • Publication date: 1/1/1992
  • Pages: 304
  • Product dimensions: 6.10 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 0.90 (d)

Table of Contents

List of tables and figures
Introduction 1
Pt. 1 The Rise of British Monetarism
1 Setting the agenda 13
Money Supply Targeting vs Interest Rate Targeting 14
Money Supply Targets vs Fixed Exchange Rates 18
2 Some key themes 22
Price Stability and the 'Natural' Level of Unemployment 24
Gradual Monetary Deceleration - A Theme in British Monetarism 27
The Importance of Money in Macroeconomic Forecasting - Part 1 30
3 The rationale of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy 36
Monetarism and the Budget Deficit 38
A Proposal for a Medium-Term Financial Plan 49
The Medium-Term Financial Implications of North Sea Oil 55
The Analytical Foundations of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy 65
4 Britain's monetarist experiment - initial setbacks followed by triumph 78
The Need for a Medium-Term Perspective 80
Why did Monetarism have so much Trouble in the Early 1980s?: 1. The Missed Targets 83
Why did Monetarism have so much Trouble in the Early 1980s?: 2. The Public Sector Problem 95
The Value of a Long-Term Anti-Inflation Programme 104
A Confident Forecast of Prosperity in the Mid-1980s 107
A Perspective on a Decade of Progress 111
Pt. 2 The Fall of British Monetarism
5 Early warnings 117
Is Lawson Heading for Another Barber Bubble? 118
Why the European Monetary System Is No Easy Option 121
A Forecast of a Lawson 'Mini-Boom' 123
Broad Money vs Narrow Money 126
6 A typical Tory boom 129
Will the House-Buying Boom Save Thatcher? 130
Why Lawson should have Re-Introduced a Broad Money Target in Late 1986 132
The Credit Boom and the Case for a More Independent Bank of England 135
Stop-Go Returns 140
The Lawson Boom in the Light of the Crash 143
Even the Housing Boom can Turn to Bust 150
7 I told you so 154
Quick, Quick, Slow, Stop-Go 155
On Teenage Scribblers and Computerized Sheep 158
The Lawson Boom: Not Quite as Bad as the Barber Boom 160
On Property Speculation and Business Entrepreneurship 164
8 Some initial theorizing 167
Credit, Broad Money and Economic Activity 171
The Importance of Money in Macroeconomic Forecasting - Part 2 191
Pt. 3 Keynes and British Monetarism
9 Keynes and British monetarism 197
Are We Really All Keynesians Now? 197
Keynes, British Monetarism and American Monetarism 209
The Exchange Rate in British Monetary Policy - or Where British Economics Went Wrong 234
Pt. 4 Two Period Pieces
10 Two period pieces 259
The Intelligent Radical's Approach to the Balance of Payments 261
Introducing the Concept of 'Equity Withdrawal' 274
Index 289
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