Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide / Edition 3

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide / Edition 3

by David Vose
     
 

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps

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Overview

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these technique and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of risk analysis, as well as new chapters for this risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

Key Features:

  • Breaks down techniques into types of modelling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation and time series forecasting) and then applies them with easy-to-follow examples.
  • Explains powerful and proven Monte Carlo simulation and numerical techniques for dealing with uncertainty.
  • Includes recent innovations in modelling like fast Fourier transforms and copulas.
  • Over 150 examples models and over 400 illustrations.
  • Written in an informal manner with a practical rather than academic focus.
  • Discusses the planning, uses and abuses of risk analysis.
  • Includes a compendium of almost eighty distribution types and their uses.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780470512845
Publisher:
Wiley
Publication date:
05/09/2008
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
752
Sales rank:
993,130
Product dimensions:
7.72(w) x 10.00(h) x 1.88(d)

Table of Contents

Pt. 1 Introduction 1

1 Why do a risk analysis? 3

2 Planning a risk analysis 21

3 The quality of a risk analysis 29

4 Choice of model structure 37

5 Understanding and using the results of a risk analysis 67

Pt. 2 Introduction 109

6 Probability mathematics and simulation 115

7 Building and running a model 145

8 Some basic random processes 167

9 Data and statistics 207

10 Fitting distributions to data 263

11 Sums of random variables 301

12 Forecasting with uncertainty 321

13 Modelling correlation and dependencies 353

14 Eliciting from expert opinion 393

15 Testing and modelling causal relationships 423

16 Optimisation in risk analysis 435

17 Checking and validating a model 451

18 Discounted cashflow modelling 461

19 Project risk analysis 473

20 Insurance and finance risk analysis modelling 493

21 Microbial food safety risk assessment 517

I Guide for lecturers 467

II About ModelRisk 569

III A compendium of distributions 585

IV Further reading 715

V Vose consulting 721

References 725

Index 729

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