Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide / Edition 2

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Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for the risk analyst and decision maker. Based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. By providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of a risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

About the Author:
David Vose is senior partner of Vose Consulting, a risk analysis consulting, software and training firm with offices in the US, Europe and Russia

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780471997658
  • Publisher: Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 1/28/1978
  • Edition description: REV
  • Edition number: 2
  • Pages: 430
  • Product dimensions: 7.72 (w) x 9.92 (h) x 1.13 (d)

Meet the Author

David Vose is senior partner of Vose Consulting, a risk analysis consulting, software and training firm with offices in the US, Europe and Russia. He has worked in risk analysis since 1988 in an extensive range of industry and government problems from insurance, banking, corporate finance, food safety, nuclear power, and epidemiology to oil and gas, construction, utilities, and general commerce. he has co-authored and edited several international guidelines on risk. A charismatic speaker, David gives frequent public and in-house risk analysis seminars. David has served as expert witness in a variety of high profile court cases. A keen squash player, he lives with Veerle and their two children in Ghent, Belgium and dreams of one day owning an old Bentley when there's room in the garage..

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Table of Contents

Pt. 1 Introduction 1

1 Why do a risk analysis? 3

2 Planning a risk analysis 21

3 The quality of a risk analysis 29

4 Choice of model structure 37

5 Understanding and using the results of a risk analysis 67

Pt. 2 Introduction 109

6 Probability mathematics and simulation 115

7 Building and running a model 145

8 Some basic random processes 167

9 Data and statistics 207

10 Fitting distributions to data 263

11 Sums of random variables 301

12 Forecasting with uncertainty 321

13 Modelling correlation and dependencies 353

14 Eliciting from expert opinion 393

15 Testing and modelling causal relationships 423

16 Optimisation in risk analysis 435

17 Checking and validating a model 451

18 Discounted cashflow modelling 461

19 Project risk analysis 473

20 Insurance and finance risk analysis modelling 493

21 Microbial food safety risk assessment 517

I Guide for lecturers 467

II About ModelRisk 569

III A compendium of distributions 585

IV Further reading 715

V Vose consulting 721

References 725

Index 729

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