Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management / Edition 3

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Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. It shows clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presenting basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, and incorporating numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion, this book unites the latest theories and methodologies from diverse disciplines. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management is an essential reference for professionals working in universities, industry, and government: and for anyone interested in risk analysis in virtually any discipline.

"...unites the latest theories and methodologies from diverse disciplines; explains how to identify real, perceived, and imaginary risks; offers extensive coverage of the modeling process; and introduces advanced methodologies.

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Editorial Reviews

A holistic exploration of risk that attempts to balance the quantitative and empirical dimensions of risk assessment and management with the more qualitative and normative aspects of decision making under risk and uncertainty. Haimes (risk analysis, U. of Virginia) shows how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems including institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. He avoids higher mathematics whenever possible in his presentation of the material. Includes many case studies used to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. Intended for risk management professionals working in universities, industry, and government. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.
From the Publisher

“This is a text for students of risk analysis, covering everything from the art of risk analysis to the statistics of extremes.” (Natural Hazards Observer, 1 March 2013)

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470282373
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 1/9/2009
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 3
  • Pages: 1040
  • Sales rank: 937,598
  • Product dimensions: 6.50 (w) x 9.30 (h) x 2.00 (d)

Table of Contents

Pt. I Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 1
1 Introduction 3
2 The Role of Modeling in the Risk Assessment Process 49
3 Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling 93
4 Decision Analysis 138
5 Multiobjective Trade-off Analysis 193
6 Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 228
7 Bayes' Theorem and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity 279
Pt. II Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 303
8 Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value 305
9 Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis 355
10 Multiobjective Risk-Impact Analysis Method 400
11 Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM 437
12 Statistics of Extremes: Sensitivity to Partitioning 484
13 Statistics of Extremes: Generalized Quantification of Risk 521
14 Fault Trees 540
15 Multiobjective Statistical Method 584
16 Software Risk Management 610
App Optimization Techniques 646
Index 715
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