Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management / Edition 3

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management / Edition 3

by Yacov Y. Haimes
     
 

Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security,

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Overview

Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues.

Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as:

  • A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues
  • An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals
  • Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina
  • An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three

This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.

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Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780470282373
Publisher:
Wiley
Publication date:
01/09/2009
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
1040
Product dimensions:
6.50(w) x 9.30(h) x 2.00(d)

Table of Contents

Preface
Acknowledgments
Pt. IFundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management1
1Introduction3
2The Role of Modeling in the Risk Assessment Process49
3Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling93
4Decision Analysis138
5Multiobjective Trade-off Analysis193
6Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis228
7Bayes' Theorem and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity279
Pt. IIAdvances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management303
8Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value305
9Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis355
10Multiobjective Risk-Impact Analysis Method400
11Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM437
12Statistics of Extremes: Sensitivity to Partitioning484
13Statistics of Extremes: Generalized Quantification of Risk521
14Fault Trees540
15Multiobjective Statistical Method584
16Software Risk Management610
AppOptimization Techniques646
Index715

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