Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering / Edition 2

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This book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). This edition includes new chapters providing a detailed treatment of scenario logic and probabilistic models for revealing bribes. It also contains clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index, as well as more than a hundred illustrations and tables which motivate the presentation.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
From the reviews of the second edition:

"The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management … . the book is intended for experts in the field of risk management in business, technical, economic and organisational systems at the stages of design, test, debug and operation. Students, postgraduate students and teachers in economics and engineering fields may also benefit from this book." (Vangelis Grigoroudis, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1156, 2009)

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780387779454
  • Publisher: Springer US
  • Publication date: 11/7/2008
  • Series: Springer Optimization and Its Applications, #20
  • Edition description: 2nd ed. 2009
  • Edition number: 2
  • Pages: 450
  • Product dimensions: 6.40 (w) x 9.30 (h) x 1.10 (d)

Table of Contents

Foreword.- Introduction.- Acronyms and General Notations.- Management and Risk.- The Human Being and Risks.- Principles of Risk Management in Design.- Risk Management at Debugging Tests.- Risk Management in Operation on Basis of Monitoring.- Risk Management on Dangerous Plant.- Transparency of Methods for Estimation of Risk.- Bases of Logic and Probabilistic Calculus.- LP-Modeling and Analyses of Risk in Engineering.- Automated Structural and Logical Modeling.- Logical and Probabilistic Theory of Risk with Groups of Incompatible Events.- Identification of Risk LP-Models with Groups of Incompatible Events.- LP-Analysis of Risk in Systems with Groups of Incompatible Events.- Software for Assessment, Analysis and Management of Risk.- LP-Model of Credit Risk for Natural Persons.- LP-Model of Credit Risk for Juridical Persons.- Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Models for Detecting Bribes.- LP-Model of Security Portfolio Risk.- Risk LP-Models of Quality and Efficiency.- LP-Models of Company Management Non-Success Risk.- LP-Models of Frauds and Interaction of Companies.- The Formal LP-Theory of Non-Success Risk with GIE.- Training Course Modeling, Estimation, and Analysis of Risks in Economics.- Conclusion.- References.- Subject Index.

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