Scenarios for Success: Turning Insights into action / Edition 1

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The era of clear dangers, simple problems andpredict-and-control approaches is past. Many groups andorganizations are searching for more effective means to survival,continued success and strategic renewal in a context clouded bycompeting interests, multiple worldviews and turbulent change. Ascycles of fashion in managerial practices shorten, scenariothinking and planning has endured with continued, if not increased,relevance. After over 30 years of practice, it increasinglypermeates the public, private and civic sectors. Why? As variouschapters of this book emphasize, this continued interest stems notfrom the success in building a set of alternative futures –or scenarios - per se, nor from methodological coherence. Instead,success relates to the effectiveness of scenarios as purposefulinterventions aimed at organizational sense-making, innovation anddevelopment.

Dr Angela Wilkinson, Director of Scenario Planning andFutures Research, James Martin Institute for Science andCivilisation

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"[The book] shows just how many new aspects there are to be seen."  (Credit Control Journal, Volume 28 #4)
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470512982
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 11/16/2007
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 434
  • Product dimensions: 5.60 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.50 (d)

Meet the Author

Bill Sharpe is an independent researcher in science,technology and society. He was a research director at HewlettPackard Laboratories where he led research into everydayapplications of digital technology. He introduced scenario methodsto HP for long-range research and business management, andpioneered the use of scenario methods for supporting businessinnovation. In 1999 he co-founded an innovation and consultingcompany, The Appliance Studio, and now specializes in long rangetechnology studies for business strategy and public policyforesight. He has worked extensively for the UK government’sForesight Programme in areas such as Cognitive Systems, Cybertrust,and Intelligent Infrastructure. With a background in computing andpsychology, he is particularly interested in drawing on leadingedge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways oftackling complex problems. He works independently and as anassociate with several organizations in the futures field.

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of TempletonCollege, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at theNetherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is alsoEmeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate Schoolof Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and StrategicManagement since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of theGlobal Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was incharge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of theGroup’s Business Environment Division. This involved advisingtop management on strategy, as well as development of the processof scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leadingrole.

He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change andinstitutional strategic management processes, and has consultedwidely in these areas.

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Table of Contents






Introduction by Bill Sharpe.

1 Conversations with Peter Schwartz and Napier Collyns (BillSharpe). 

2 Professional Dreamers: The Future in the Past of ScenarioPlanning (Cynthia Selin).


3 Scenarios and Innovation (Jan Verloop).

4 Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Rolefor Scenarios in Strategy (Rafael Ramírez and Kees van derHeijden).

5 Deepening Futures with System Structure (Tony Hodgson and BillSharpe).

6 From Signals to Decisions (Alexander Fink, Philip Hadridge andGill Ringland).

7 When Strangers Meet: Scenarios and the Legal Profession (KarimMedjad and Rafael Ramirez).

8 The Power of Narrative (Lennart Nordfors).


9 Viewing Futures Network: Collaborative Learning and Innovationat Rabobank (Paul de Ruijter).

10 Facilitating Scenario Development Process: Some Lessons forFacilitators (Ronald Bradfield).

11 Appreciating the Future (Tony Hodgson).

12 Building a Comprehensive Strategic Future Management System:A Future Map Approach (Don Heathfield).

13 Acting on the Future (Andrew Curry).

14 Backwards to the Future: Scenarios as Routines forOrganizational Health (James Tansey).




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