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Overview

The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight.

There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios in public policy. The use of scenarios to create a framework for a shared vision of the future, by promoting discussion and building consensus outside a business environment, is examined. Ringland also looks at the similarities between organizations which have used scenarios successfully - such as the importance of communication via storyline and image.

Scenarios in Public Policy and its companion, Scenario Planning in Business are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.

Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work:

"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company'

"(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
"aimed at public managers who wish to consider the future more in their decision-making process..." (Gulf Business, February 2003)
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780470843833
  • Publisher: Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 6/18/2002
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 284
  • Product dimensions: 9.00 (w) x 6.00 (h) x 0.64 (d)

Table of Contents

About the Author

Acknowledgements

Abbreviation

Introduction

Part I: Scenarios in Public Policy

Summary

Four Scenarios for Public Education in Seattle

Rotterdam and Arnhem

Mission and Consequences in Bueren

Scottish Enterprise's use of Scenarios

Tackling big issues in 24 hours

Scenarios for Sustainable Development

VISIONS scenarios on the future of Europe

Foresight Futures 2001

Lessons Learned

Part II: Scenarios in the Public Sector

Summary

US General Services Agency- Scenarios for the Federal Workplace

Consignia and Scenario Thinking

Scenarios at the dti

Scenario Planning goes to Rome

Decision Making in the Public Sector

Lessons Learned

Part III: Making scenarios work

Summary

The Environment for Scenario Thinking

The Stages of a Project

Getting started

Deciding the question

Interviews and workshops

Scenario creation

Scenarios to plans

Linking Scenarios into the Organisation

Main points

Part IV: Scenario Thinking

Summary

Scenarios and Strategy

Strategy and Scenarios in the Public Sector

Where are we now?

Forecasts

Evolutionary models for cultural change

Comparison of Global Scenarios

Where next?

Conclusions

References

Index

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