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For many years now, certainly since Scenarios was first published, the only constants in the business environment have been turbulence and change. Today things are no different.
Scenario planning enables managers to face up to this uncertainty by evolving from the idea of finding the ‘best strategy’ to one of mobilising the ‘best strategizing process’. In this long-awaited new edition of his bestselling classic, Kees van der Heijden shows you how to move your organization to meet the future by turning its ongoing ‘strategic conversation’ to its own advantage. Linking your organization’s unique (but often tacit) business idea with scenario thinking, and building on the principles of organizational learning, he describes practical ways to develop those skills that will enhance the continuous scenario-based strategy process.
"Kees van der Heijden has written the most comprehensive, detailed and insightful guide to understanding the business enviornment in a way most useful to business. No one has mastered the art of bringing that insight to bear in the real world of business with greater depth than Kees." Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; author of 'The Art of the Long View'.
"The span of this book is unusually wide: it goes from the philosophy of scenario thinking to the minute practicalities of how to do it. This book is, in my view, the best field guide in a field where it is easy to go astray and where guidance is precious." Pierre Wack, Former Head of Scenario Planning, Royal Dutch / Shell
PART ONE: The Context.
1. 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries at Shell.
2. Introduction to Scenario-based Planning.
3. Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management.
PART TWO: The Principles of Scenario-based Planning.
5. The Business Idea of an Organisation.
6. The Uncertain Environment.
7. Scenario Analysis.
8. Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation.
PART THREE: The Practice of Scenario-based planning.
9. The Practitioner’s Art.
10. Articulation of the Business Idea.
11. Competitive Positioning.
12. Scenario Development.
13. Option Planning.
PART FOUR: Institutionalising Scenario-based planning.
14. The Management of Change.
15. Planning Process.
16. Guiding the Strategic Conversation.