Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis / Edition 186

by Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes

Overview

What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780833032751
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	10/09/2003
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	186
Product dimensions:	6.09(w) x 9.14(h) x 0.48(d)

Table of Contents

	Preface	iii
	Figures	vii
	Tables	ix
	Summary	xi
	Acknowledgments	xix
	Abbreviations	xxi
Chapter 1	The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis	1
	Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible	3
	The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development	7
	Surprise: The Constant Element	8
	Organization of This Report	8
Chapter 2	A History of Thinking about the Future	11
	Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future	12
	Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight	16
	Simulation Modeling	20
	Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty	25
	Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures	29
	Assessing the State of the Art	36
Chapter 3	Robust Decisionmaking	39
	Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty	40
	Consider Ensembles of Scenarios	45
	Seek Robust Strategies	52
	Employ Adaptive Strategies	57
	Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively	62
	Concluding Thoughts	66
Chapter 4	A Framework for Scenario Generation	69
	The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability	69
	The "XLRM" Framework	70
Chapter 5	Implementing Robust Decisionmaking	87
	Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development	87
	Landscapes of Plausible Futures	91
	No Fixed Strategy Is Robust	96
	Exploring Near-Term Milestones	103
	Identifying a Robust Strategy	110
	Characterizing Irreducible Risks	117
	Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development	121
Chapter 6	Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysis	125
	Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators	126
	Improved Navigation	131
	A Diversity of Measures and Values	135
	Engaging the Community of Stakeholders	137
	Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking	141
Chapter 7	Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shores	145
	Appendix
A.	Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generator	149
B.	Assessing Robust Strategies	165
	Bibliography	179