Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis / Edition 186

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis / Edition 186

by Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes
     
 

ISBN-10: 0833032755

ISBN-13: 9780833032751

Pub. Date: 10/15/2003

Publisher: RAND Corporation

What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?

Overview

What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780833032751
Publisher:
RAND Corporation
Publication date:
10/15/2003
Edition description:
New Edition
Pages:
186
Product dimensions:
6.09(w) x 9.14(h) x 0.48(d)

Table of Contents

Prefaceiii
Figuresvii
Tablesix
Summaryxi
Acknowledgmentsxix
Abbreviationsxxi
Chapter 1The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis1
Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible3
The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development7
Surprise: The Constant Element8
Organization of This Report8
Chapter 2A History of Thinking about the Future11
Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future12
Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight16
Simulation Modeling20
Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty25
Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures29
Assessing the State of the Art36
Chapter 3Robust Decisionmaking39
Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty40
Consider Ensembles of Scenarios45
Seek Robust Strategies52
Employ Adaptive Strategies57
Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively62
Concluding Thoughts66
Chapter 4A Framework for Scenario Generation69
The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability69
The "XLRM" Framework70
Chapter 5Implementing Robust Decisionmaking87
Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development87
Landscapes of Plausible Futures91
No Fixed Strategy Is Robust96
Exploring Near-Term Milestones103
Identifying a Robust Strategy110
Characterizing Irreducible Risks117
Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development121
Chapter 6Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysis125
Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators126
Improved Navigation131
A Diversity of Measures and Values135
Engaging the Community of Stakeholders137
Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking141
Chapter 7Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shores145
Appendix
A.Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generator149
B.Assessing Robust Strategies165
Bibliography179

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