Simplicity, Inference and Modelling: Keeping it Sophisticatedly Simple

Simplicity, Inference and Modelling: Keeping it Sophisticatedly Simple

by Arnold Zellner
     
 

ISBN-10: 0521803616

ISBN-13: 9780521803618

Pub. Date: 03/01/2002

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor. A problem with Ockham's Razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians,…  See more details below

Overview

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor. A problem with Ockham's Razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: What is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience?

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780521803618
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Publication date:
03/01/2002
Pages:
314
Product dimensions:
5.98(w) x 8.98(h) x 0.87(d)
Lexile:
1440L (what's this?)

Table of Contents

List of figures
List of tables
List of contributors
1The enigma of simplicity1
Pt. IThe importance of simplicity11
2What is the problem of simplicity?13
3Science seeks parsimony, not simplicity: searching for pattern in phenomena32
4A macroeconomic approach to complexity73
5The new science of simplicity83
6What explains complexity?120
7Occam's bonus128
Pt. IISimplicity in theory and practice133
8Simplicity, information, Kolmogorov complexity and prediction135
9Simplicity and statistical inference156
10Rissanen's theorem and econometric time series165
11Parametric versus non-parametric inference: statistical models and simplicity181
12The role of simplicity in an econometric model selection process207
13Simplicity in a behavioural, non-parametric context227
14Keep it sophisticatedly simple242
15Communication, complexity and coordination in games263
16The simplicity of an earnings frontier277
17Simplicity: views of some Nobel laureates in economic science292
Index297

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