Statistical Thinking in Sports

by Jim Albert (Editor), Ruud H. Koning (Editor)

Overview

Since the first athletic events found a fan base, sports and statistics have always maintained a tight and at times mythical relationship. As a way to relay the telling of a game's drama and attest to the prodigious powers of the heroes involved, those reporting on the games tallied up the numbers that they believe best described the action and best defined the winning edge. However, they may not have always counted the right numbers. Many of our hallowed beliefs about sports statistics have long been fraught with misnomers. Whether it concerns Scottish football or American baseball, the most revered statistics often have little to do with any winning edge.

Covering an international collection of sports, Statistical Thinking in Sports provides an accessible survey of current research in statistics and sports, written by experts from a variety of arenas. Rather than rely on casual observation, they apply the rigorous tools of statistics to re-examine many of those concepts that have gone from belief to fact, based mostly on the repetition of their claims. Leaving assumption behind, these researchers take on a host of tough questions-

Is a tennis player only as good as his or her first serve?

Is there such a thing as home field advantage?

Do concerns over a decline in soccer's competitive balance have any merit?

What of momentum-is its staying power any greater than yesterday's win?

And what of pressure performers? Are there such creatures or ultimately, does every performer fall back to his or her established normative?

Investigating a wide range of international team and individual sports, the book considers the ability to make predictions, define trends, and measure any number of influences. It is full of interesting and useful examples for those teaching introductory statistics. Although the articles are aimed at general readers, the serious researcher in sports statistics will also find the articles of value and highly useful as starting points for further research.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781584888680
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Publication date:	07/12/2007
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	310
Product dimensions:	6.12(w) x 9.19(h) x (d)

About the Author

Jim Albert, Ruud H. Koning

Table of Contents

Introduction   Jim Albert   Ruud H. Koning     1
Introduction     1
Patterns of world records in sports (two chapters)     2
Competition, rankings, and betting in soccer (three chapters)     2
An investigation into some popular baseball myths (three chapters)     3
Uncertainty of attendance at sports events (two chapters)     4
Home advantage, myths in tennis, drafting in hockey pools, American football     4
Website     5
Reference     5
Modelling the development of world records in running   Gerard H. Kuper   Elmer Sterken     7
Introduction     7
Modelling world records     9
Cross-sectional approach     10
Fitting the individual curves     11
Selection of the functional form     12
Candidate functions     12
Theoretical selection of curves     17
Fitting the models     18
The Gompertz curve in more detail     18
Running data     23
Results of fitting the Gompertz curves     23
Limit values of time and distance     26
Summary and conclusions     28
References     29
The physics and evolution of Olympic winning performances   Ray Stefani     33
Introduction     33
Running events     34
The physics of running     34
Measuring the rate of improvement in running     37
Periods of summer Olympic history     38
The future of running     40
Jumping events     40
The physics of jumping     40
Measuring the rate of improvement in jumping     43
The future of jumping     44
Swimming events     46
The physics of swimming     46
Measuring the rate of improvement in swimming     47
The future of swimming     49
Rowing     49
The physics of rowing     49
Measuring the rate of improvement in rowing     50
The future of rowing     52
Speed skating     53
The physics of speed skating     53
Measuring the rate of improvement in speed skating     54
Periods of winter Olympic history     55
The future of speed skating     57
A summary of what we have learned     57
References     59
Competitive balance in national European soccer competitions   Marco Haan   Ruud H. Koning   Arjen van Witteloostuijn     63
Introduction     63
Measurement of competitive balance     64
Empirical results     67
Can national competitive balance measures be condensed?     72
Conclusion     74
References     74
Statistical analysis of the effectiveness of the FIFA World Rankings   Ian McHale   Stephen Davies     77
Introduction     77
FIFA's ranking procedure     78
Implications of the FIFA World Rankings     79
The data     80
Preliminary analysis     80
Team win percentage, in and out of own confederation     80
International soccer versus domestic soccer     82
Forecasting soccer matches     84
Using the FIFA World Rankings to forecast match results     84
Reaction to new information     85
A forecasting model for match result using past results     86
Conclusion     89
References     89
Forecasting scores and results and testing the efficiency of the fixed-odds betting market in Scottish league football   Stephen Dobson   John Goddard      91
Introduction     91
Literature review     92
Regression models for goal scoring and match results     95
Data and estimation results     97
The efficiency of the market for fixed-odds betting on Scottish league football     102
Conclusion     107
References     107
Hitting in the pinch   Jim Albert     111
Introduction     111
A breakdown of a plate appearance: four hitting rates     112
Predicting runs scored by the four rates     114
Separating luck from ability     114
Situational biases     117
A model for clutch hitting     124
Clutch stars?     125
Related work and concluding comments     127
References     133
Does momentum exist in a baseball game?   Rebecca J. Sela   Jeffrey S. Simonoff     135
Introduction     135
Models for baseball play     136
Situational and momentum effects     138
Does momentum exist?     140
Modeling transition probabilities     140
Modeling runs scored     144
Rally starters and rally killers     149
Conclusions      150
References     151
Inference about batter-pitcher matchups in baseball from small samples   Hal S. Stern   Adam Sugano     153
Introduction     153
The batter-pitcher matchup: a binomial view     154
A hierarchical model for batter-pitcher matchup data     155
Data for a single player     155
A probability model for batter-pitcher matchups     156
Results - Derek Jeter     158
Results - multiple players     160
Batter-pitcher data from the pitcher's perspective     160
Results - a single pitcher     161
Results - multiple players     163
Towards a more realistic model     163
Discussion     164
References     165
Outcome uncertainty measures: how closely do they predict a close game?   Babatunde Buraimo   David Forrest   Robert Simmons     167
Introduction     167
Measures of outcome uncertainty     169
Data     171
Preliminary analysis of the betting market     172
Model     173
Out-of-sample testing     175
Concluding remarks     176
References      177
The impact of post-season play-off systems on the attendance at regular season games   Chris Bojke     179
Introduction     179
Theoretical model of the demand for attendance and the impact of play-off design     181
Measuring the probability of end-of-season outcomes and game significance     183
The data: the 2000/01 English Football League second tier     185
Statistical issues in the measurement of the determinants of attendance     190
Skewed, non-negative heteroscedastic data     190
Clustering of attendance within teams and unobserved heterogeneity     192
Multicollinearity     192
Final statistical model     193
Model estimation     194
Choice of explanatory variables     194
Regression results     195
The impact of the play-off system on regular league attendances     197
Conclusions     199
References     201
Measurement and interpretation of home advantage   Ray Stefani     203
Introduction     203
Measuring home advantage     204
Rugby union, soccer, NBA     207
Australian rules football, NFL, and college football     211
NHL hockey and MLB baseball      212
Can home advantage become unfair?     214
Summary     214
References     215
Myths in Tennis   Jan Magnus   Franc Klaassen     217
Introduction     217
The data and two selection problems     218
Service myths     221
A player is as good as his or her second service     223
Serving first     224
New balls     226
Winning mood     229
At the beginning of a final set, both players have the same chance of winning the match     230
In the final set the player who has won the previous set has the advantage     231
After breaking your opponent's service there is an increased chance that you will lose your own service     232
After missing break points in the previous game there is an increased chance that you will lose your own service     233
Big points     234
The seventh game     234
Do big points exist?     235
Real champions     237
Conclusion     238
References     239
Back to back evaluations on the gridiron   David J. Berri     241
Why do professional team sports track player statistics?     241
The NFL's quarterback rating measure     242
The Scully approach     243
Modeling team offense and defense     244
Net Points, QB Score, and RB Score     252
Who is the best?     253
Forecasting performance in the NFL     254
Do different metrics tell a different story?     259
Do we have marginal physical product in the NFL?     260
References     261
Optimal drafting in hockey pools   Amy E. Summers   Tim B. Swartz   Richard A. Lockhart     263
Introduction     263
Statistical modelling     264
Distribution of points     264
Distribution of games     266
An optimality criterion     268
A simulation study     269
An actual Stanley Cup playoff pool     273
Discussion     276
References     276
References     277
List of authors     291
Index     295

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

… For those with an interest in sports and statistics, this book is an interesting and sometimes enlightening read. As a baseball fan, I particularly enjoyed the related chapters on clutch hitting, in-game momentum, and batter–pitcher matchups. I would recommend this text to any statistician contemplating related future research. Toward this end, additional information, data, and appendixes for some chapters are available on the book’s website.
—Technometrics, February 2009, Vol. 51, No. 1

A serious effort by thoughtful statisticians in the area of sports not only contributes to the general area, but also offers a window to the world on the work of the professional statistician. As a more general audience becomes aware of the work of the statistician, it can only serve to bolster the reputation of our profession in general. … All in all, I found the volume to be very enjoyable. I would recommend it to anyone looking for an introduction to one of the subjects covered, as the introductions and bibliographies are generally quite good. … this volume has something for everyone.
—Gilbert W. Fellingham, Brigham Young University, The American Statistician, November 2008

…an international collection of current research in statistics and sports…is full of interesting and useful examples to use when teaching statistics.
—Susan Starkings, London South Bank University, International Statistical Review, 2008

Editorial Reviews

… For those with an interest in sports and statistics, this book is an interesting and sometimes enlightening read. As a baseball fan, I particularly enjoyed the related chapters on clutch hitting, in-game momentum, and batter–pitcher matchups. I would recommend this text to any statistician contemplating related future research. Toward this end, additional information, data, and appendixes for some chapters are available on the book’s website.
—Technometrics, February 2009, Vol. 51, No. 1

A serious effort by thoughtful statisticians in the area of sports not only contributes to the general area, but also offers a window to the world on the work of the professional statistician. As a more general audience becomes aware of the work of the statistician, it can only serve to bolster the reputation of our profession in general. … All in all, I found the volume to be very enjoyable. I would recommend it to anyone looking for an introduction to one of the subjects covered, as the introductions and bibliographies are generally quite good. … this volume has something for everyone.
—Gilbert W. Fellingham, Brigham Young University, The American Statistician, November 2008

…an international collection of current research in statistics and sports…is full of interesting and useful examples to use when teaching statistics.
—Susan Starkings, London South Bank University, International Statistical Review, 2008

From the Publisher