Stock Cyclesby Michael A. Alexander
When Michael Alexander first started/p>
For most Americans, a 401k plan is their first exposure to investing. Many of us are relying on the stock market to provide for us in our retirement yet at the same time, most of us are afraid of the stock market. It's a valid concern. How can something so important to our financial future be so completely unpredictable?
When Michael Alexander first started investing in the stock market, he noticed that few analysts seemed to have much knowledge of what the market has done in the past. While no one can give precise answers to questions about the future of the market and be right all the time, Alexander feels that it's possible to gain an understanding of the future of the stock market by studying its past.
Analyzing years of historical data for patterns of behavior that might repeat in the future, Alexander provides strong statistical evidence for a cyclical pattern in the stock market. These Stock Cycles show that long periods of poor stock returns have always followed long periods of good returns. Are we in for good times or is the party over?
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
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The book is a somewhat exhaustive analysis of economic cycles (primairly kondratiev) vs the US stock market. Theres a lot of charts and tables of numbers, and even some 1st year calc (in the appendix) thrown in. In the end he predicts the end of the bull market and predicts a long bear market..batting 500 so far. However, his predictions where stated in +\- 2years windows..which I realize is the best you can rationally expect. So the book spends two thirds of it length explaining what has essentially happened..and about 1 chapter of how to invest now for it. So if you believe in cycles, and I think most people can see it in the ups and downs, then you should see this book as explaining the fundamentals of cycle with application to the stock market as of pre 2000.
This book gives us excellent historical research, and a few examples showing why a smart person can be fooled by the market. Then it looks behind the long cycles of economic and market history to answer the question 'Why?'. For any who follow Alan Greenspan, you've probably heard the Joseph Schumpeter phrase 'creative destruction', but you have probably never seen it charted out through centuries of economic history. A definite companion to 'Irrational Exuberance' and a great counterpoint to 'The Roaring 2000's'.
As an investor, I listen to pundits and prognosticators constantly making predictions that are short-sighted and ignore lessons from history and macroeconomics. This book provided me with an excellent foundation and perspective for seeing the 'big picture.' It allowed me to keep the 'forest' in mind when negotiating all the 'trees' in my investing path. I found this book to be thoughtful, extremely well researched, and grounded in history, technical analysis, and common sense. Technicians, fundamentalists, or those believing in the lessons of history should read this book.
This book has provided me a clear view of where the stock markets and our economy stand in a historical perspective. It has also helped me to understand what is the most likely outcome of current changing environments for investors. I especially like the plain language and clear explanations that are based on factual historical data and not on whimsical hype or hollow predictions that seem to be common in other popular books on this subject. The illustrations handle the data in an efficient way so you don't have to be a statistician to understand what's happening.