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?A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.?
Los Angeles Times
At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television...
“A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead.”
Los Angeles Times
At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it.
Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete.
Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to:
The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes.
No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.
Introduction: The Prediction Imperative 1
Pt. 1 Principles of Forecasting
Ch. 1 Poor Past Predictions 11
Ch. 2 Near-Term Forecasting 31
Ch. 3 Possibilities, Then Predictions: The Four-Measures Procedure 45
Ch. 4 Extrapolating from Past to Future 67
Ch. 5 Possibility Generators 81
Ch. 6 Predicting Big Externalities 105
Pt. 2 Future Possibilities
Ch. 7 The Future Automobile 115
Ch. 8 Terrorism in the United States 121
Ch. 9 China and the Asian Military Arena 131
Ch. 10 K-12 Education in the United States 145
Ch. 11 A Nuclear Scenario 157
Ch. 12 Robotic Birds and No-Casualty Warfare 165
Ch. 13 The Price of Oil 173
Ch. 14 The SuperGrid Electric Power System 181
Ch. 15 The Medical Practice Internet Channel 189
Ch. 16 The Next War 195