SuperCycles: The New Economic Force Transforming Global Markets and Investment Strategy

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SuperCycles: The New Economic Force Transforming Global Markets and Investment Strategy Pub. Date: 1/14/2010 Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies, The

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Overview

A brilliantly original assessment of what caused the global crash—and a practical plan for investing accordingly

Supercycles, according to international economist and strategist, Arun Motianey, are the continuous, long waves of boom and bust that undulate through the global economic and financial systems. More often than not, they are the result of policymakers' well-intentioned but misguided attempts to achieve price stability. In Supercycles, Motianey surpasses the traditional business cycle model ("Boom and Bust"), to provide a detailed, objective, and at times surprising explanation of global economics.

Drawing heavily on history and informed by cautious readings of a wide range of economic thought, Motianey critiques the way macroeconomics has been practiced by the major powers' central banks through the years.

Specifically, it was the banks' intervention, ostensibly in the quest for price stability that actually served to entrench price instability. Further, he makes a compelling case for the new tools we'll be using to manage the post-meltdown global economy, and even advises on investor portfolios to protect us from the likeliest scenarios that occur when a supercycle enters its terminal phase.

A cogent and impossible-to-ignore mixture of economics, finance, policy, risk management, and investment advice from a global perspective, Supercycles is certain to inform and inspire debate among investors, academics, and casual readers alike.

Reviews:

"Motianey is an engaging writer and Supercycles should be considered a must read for economic junkies. His ideas are fresh and innovative and he attempts to avoid the dogma that frequently leads those in the profession astray. I highly recommend it for those who want to gain greater perspective on the Credit Crisis and where we might be heading in its aftermath. —SeekingAlpha.com

"Highly readable. The pitch-perfect blend of the best economic thinking informed by the lessons from the past and the investment savvy of a veteran investment advisor at the top of his game." — Thomas J. Trebat, Executive Director, Institute of Latin American Studies & Center for Brazilian Studies, Columbia University

"A provocative way of looking at the global economy.

This book will make you stop and think." — Peter Scaturro, Private Bank Executive

"This lively volume not only examines the big picture, but also provides practical advice for investors who are trying to prosper in this complex and challenging economic environment." — Harvey S. Rosen, John L. Weinberg Professor of Economics and Business Policy, Princeton University

"Arun Motianey sheds light on some of the more ludicrous propositions of modern equilibrium economics. He describes how investment bankers and economists got it

all wrong—and the world is experiencing the disastrous consequences." — Dr. Terry O’Shaughnessy, Fellow in Economics, St. Anne’s College, Oxford University

"Not all readers will agree with Motianey's savage criticism of the finance-driven modern economy, but few can read SuperCycles without having at least some of their

preconceived notions challenged. A must-read for policymakers and investors." — Dr. Kevin Hebner, Global Investment Strategist, Third Wave Global Investors

“Required reading for those who do not want to get lulled into the conventional thinking” — David Martin, Chief Risk Officer, AllianceBernstein

Arun Motianey

worked for Citigroup from 1987-

2008. His positions included

managing director and head of

macro research and strategy in the

company’s Global Wealth

Management division.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780071637374
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies, The
Publication date: 1/14/2010
Edition number: 1
Pages: 304
Sales rank: 1,165,347
Product dimensions: 6.20 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.10 (d)

Meet the Author

Arun Motianey

worked for Citigroup from 1987-

2008. His positions included

managing director and head of

macro research and strategy in the

company’s Global Wealth

Management division.

Sect. I Flaws in the Foundation 1

Ch. 1 The Elusive Science 3

Ch. 2 When Causality Becomes a Casualty 41

Sect. II The Wheel of Misfortune 63

Ch. 3 SuperCycles and Their Laws of Motion 65

Ch. 4 The Classical SuperCycle Part 1, 1873 to 14900 81

Ch. 5 The Classical SuperCycle Part 2, 1900 to 1930 101

Sect. III The Thoroughly Modern SuperCycle 117

Ch. 6 Enlightened Fiat Money and the Modern SuperCyc1e, 1979 to Present 119

Ch. 7 Beyond the Great Depression 143

Sect. IV Where Do We Go from Here? 161

Ch. 8 Three Scenarios of Adjustment 163

Ch. 9 Investment Portfolio Implications 187

App. 1 Minsky's and Koo's Challenges to the Dominant Theory 205

App. 2 The Many Faces of Gold 213

Endnotes 229

Index 237

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RolfDobelli

Posted April 28, 2011

more from this reviewer

A new, compelling take on supply, demand, economic equilibrium and long-range cycles.

In classic economic theory, market forces move the global economy toward a balance in the creation and consumption of products and services. In reality, markets rarely settle into a steady equilibrium that neatly matches supply and demand. Arun Motianey sets out a new paradigm to explain this mismatch - and much more. He says serial disequilibrium drives "SuperCycles," decades-long sequences of economic expansions, recessions and recoveries marked by a common pattern of changes in the prices of inputs and outputs. The "Classical SuperCycle," which ended with the Great Depression, lasted almost 60 years. The "Modern SuperCycle," which began in 1979, may die younger, largely because increased borrowing and other "financialization" forces are accelerating its advance. Instead of letting this unfold, regulators should set policies that sustain the Modern SuperCycle. Motianey criticizes classical macroeconomics' poor predictive power and proposes that the SuperCycle may provide a defined structure that could make it easier to foresee the economic future. getAbstract recommends this lucid, if sometimes contrarian, book to readers intrigued by fiscal history and by new ways to understand long-term economic trends.
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