Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective, With a New Preface [NOOK Book]

Overview

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic ...

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Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective, With a New Preface

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Overview

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.



Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.
--Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel
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What People Are Saying


Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.
Ehud Barak
Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.
Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel
Read More Show Less

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780674039292
  • Publisher: Harvard University Press
  • Publication date: 6/30/2009
  • Sold by: Barnes & Noble
  • Format: eBook
  • Pages: 304
  • Sales rank: 1,268,689
  • File size: 795 KB

Meet the Author

Ephraim Kam is Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Israel.

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Table of Contents

Foreword
Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons
Introduction 1
Pt. I The Components of Surprise Attack
1 The Essence of Surprise Attack 7
2 Information and Indicators 37
3 Intentions and Capabilities 56
Pt. II Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis
4 Conceptions and Incoming Information 85
5 The Process of Analysis 115
Pt. III The Environment
5 The Analyst and the Small Group 159
7 Organizational Obstacles 176
8 Intelligence and Decision Makers 199
Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? 213
Notes 236
Bibliography 241
Index 259
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