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Overview

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends was the first book to produce a methodology for interpreting the predictable behavior of investors and markets. It revolutionized technical investment approaches and showed traders and investors how to make money regardless of what the market is doing. Now in its ninth edition, the book remains the benchmark by which all other investment methodologies are measured. An indispensable reference for technical traders, investors, and finance professionals, the ninth edition features:

• Expanded treatment of Magee’s ""basing points"" procedure

• In-depth discussion and dissection of Dow Theory

• Extensive new material on commodity trading

• Much-needed perspective on short-term and futures trading

The newest incarnation of one of the true classics of market analysis, this book will be a crucial resource for both seasoned veterans and the new generation alike."

The universally acclaimed investor's classic has now been updated with the latest data and references. With more than 800,000 copies in previous editions, this is the definitive reference on analyzing trends in stock performance. It incorporates the most recent stock information and updated charts for expert guidance. Charts, tables, graphs.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

"...worth a space on every technican’s bookshelf.”

-Technically Speaking (Market Technicians Association monthly newsletter), May 2007

“With a focus on pragmatic portfolio theory, editor Charles Bassetti significantly contributes t the technical analysis body of knowledge especially related to tactics, and has created a book worth a space on every technican’s bookshelf.”

-Technically Speaking (Market Technicians Association monthly newsletter)

Booknews
The new edition of a book on the analysis of stock patterns and phenomena and their application to the tactics of trading. The section on analysis is based primarily on Richard W. Schabaker's and has changed little since its last revised edition in 1937. The second section is substantially newer and discusses such topics as the selection of stocks to chart, tactics for long-term investing, stop orders, the use of trendlines, measuring implications in technical chart patterns, and portfolio risk management. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Booknews
The seventh edition of this classic<-->considered by many to be the definitive text in the field<-->describes how to apply the three basic principles of charting, to interpret common charting patterns, how to project when and how far prices will drop, and how to get into or out of investments at the right time. This updated and revised edition also includes recent charts of Internet and technology issues and new chapters for commodities traders, detailing how to chart futures, options and derivatives trading. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780814408643
  • Publisher: AMACOM
  • Publication date: 4/11/2007
  • Edition description: 9th Edition
  • Edition number: 9
  • Pages: 832
  • Product dimensions: 6.60 (w) x 9.50 (h) x 1.80 (d)

Meet the Author

Robert D. Edwards and John Magee wrote the original edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. Magee is considered the "father of technical analysis," while Edwards was a pioneer in pattern formation and trend analysis. W. H. Charles Bassetti (San Geronimo, CA) is Adjunct Professor of Finance and Economics at Golden Gate University and a former executive in the options and commodities trading industries. He was both a student and client of John Magee.

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Read an Excerpt

Preface to the 9th Edition

Warp speed universe. Warp speed financial markets. The 8th Edition of this

classic book appeared when it seemed that the millennium and paradise had

been achieved and that, like McKay’s tulipomania, the price of stocks would

rise forever and men would rush from the world over and pay whatever

price was asked for what-was-its-name.com, Internet.groceries, or ihype.com

or icon.com or gotcha.com. And, feature this, Dow 36000. The bubble was

just in the process of bursting, of course. Before it burst fabulous fortunes

were made by roller blader and scooter tycoons and by young geeks with

nothing but chutzpah and a laptop. One of my favorite stories is of the young

entrepreneur who said “Why don’t I deserve it (the $100MM he made in the

IPO)? I’ve devoted three years of my life to this project.” (Now dead.)

Now many of those people are in prison and the hangover lingers on.

Lying, cheating, and stealing on all sides. From Enron to Arthur Anderson.

Billions, if not trillions into a black hole. As all this developed I warned of

the impending collapse in the John Magee Investment Letters on the web.

There was nothing magic or brilliant about seeing what was going on.

Perspective and perception came from applying the lessons taught in this

book by Edwards and Magee. Like Benedict XVI (in a different area) I am a

humble worker in their vineyard.

I press on attempting to modernize (where necessary) and extend their

work, fit it to the modern situation and make it even more useful to current

day traders and investors.

In this ongoing labor of love I have been immeasurably assisted by my

graduate students and colleagues at Golden Gate University in San Francisco.

In constant interaction with them, I have been stimulated to see important

aspects of Edwards and Magee’s work and develop and emphasize these

elements in my teaching and in this new edition.

Specifically, both long-term and short-term traders will find important

new material in this edition. In my graduate seminars I have seen the power

of what Magee called the “Basing Points” procedure and so have extended

the treatment of this material. My interest in and respect for Dow Theory

have recently increased as the result of a paper done with Brian Brooker for

the Market Technicians Association (“Dissecting Dow Theory”). Material

from that paper will be found in this edition. Short-term traders and futures

speculators will appreciate extensive new material on commodity trading.

These traders have been entirely too influenced by mechanical numberdriven

systems of recent years and need to restore perspective by mastering

the material in this book.

It was never the intent of this book to forecast or analyze current markets.

Rather it’s purpose was, and is, to learn from history and the past so as to

be better able to deal with the present and the future. Current markets are

AU3772_C000.fm Page 5 Tuesday, November 21, 2006 1:50 PM

analyzed (and forecast?) at the John Magee website. Nonetheless, the very

process of keeping current involves picturing issues and instruments in play.

The major indices themselves in 2005 were in play, and gold, silver and oil.

We don’t know how they will pan out. But we can make an analysis with

the data we have. For this is the situation the analyst is faced with every day.

He doesn’t know how it will turn out. But, by following the methods and

principles taught in this book he can put himself on the right side of the

probabilities.

This is no idle remark. The power and effectiveness of classical chart

analysis can be seen by examining how it performed in the past at critical

times. At the John Magee Technical Analysis website the following comment

was made in January 2000:

Dow: The Dow can expect to find support at 10000 and is buyable,

but in small commitments or portions of a portfolio or additions

thereto. We expect to see it in a very large seesaw from 9-12000 for

some time and would hedge at the high end and increase commitments

and lift hedges on oversold conditions at the low end.

In November 2000 the following comment was made:

November 18, 2000

There is really only one chart pattern of significance in these

markets, and that is the big one, more than 12 months long now,

and the pattern is a big serpent, whipping back and forth, and as

Shakespeare said, signifying nothing. Nothing that is but more of

the same. How will we know when it signifies something? Well

we won't really know till we know, but we'll let you know when

we know. So we would continue to pick likely shorts and employ

short term trading strategies for traders, and hedge at interim

tops and lift the hedges at bottoms. Based on the chart picture

and last week's anemic behavior we would not trade for bounces

in the NASDAQ. If anything it is a short, but a risky one.

These past letters, dramatically illustrating the effectiveness of the methods

of this book, may be found online through links at the address specified

below. Your editor, personally, is not a genius for having made these analyses.

It is the method that is to credit, and any number of my graduate students

can make the same analyses, as can any alert chart analyst.

The reader should not skip the prefatory material to the 8th Edition. The

same practices outlined there have been followed in this edition. Magee said

the reader should not skim through this book and put it on his library shelf.

Instead it should be read and reread and constantly referred to. And so the

reader should, yes, so he should.

Richard Russell, the dean of Dow Theory Analysts, has reportedly said

that the price of the Dow and the price of gold will cross in coming years.

He has also remarked that the S&P appears to evince a 10-year head-andshoulders

pattern. Robert Prechter believes we are at the crest of the tidal

wave and the tsunami cometh.

Dow 36000. Dow 3000. This book contains the best tools to cope with

whatever the future holds.

W.H.C. Bassetti

San Francisco, California

A Special Note Concerning Resources on the Web

In the age of instant and easy (and free) access to information on the Internet

it would be foolish to ignore the opportunities available to interact with the

material of this book. So the reader will find numerous free materials that

augment the book at www.edwards-magee.com/nf05/ninthedition.html.

For example, when the reader learns in Chapter 28 of the Basing Points

Procedure he will be able to go to the website and print out a PDF of material

that he can place beside Figure 210.1 for instant and easy cross reference,

instead of having to turn pages constantly back and forth from the chart to

the keys and commentary, or having to bend the book into pretzels at a copy

machine. In general, wherever references are made in the text to the website

it is for this purpose, to give the reader easy and flexible usage of the material.

And, likewise, at this address the reader will find links to past letters that

show how the method functioned in real time in real markets.

A Special Note about Dow Theory

Senator Everett Dirkson said one time that trying to get U.S. Senators herded

together and moving in one direction was like trying to transport bull frogs

in a wheelbarrow. Trying to synchronize the signals of the various Dow

Theory analysts is a similarly challenging proposition. No Ayatollah exists

to issue the final fatwa as to whether the signal is valid. Always one to abhor

a vacuum I have organized a committee at Golden Gate University to evaluate

pronouncements of signals and opine as to whether the signals are

valid. This committee may be contacted at the addresses found in Resources

and at cbassetti@ggu.edu.

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Table of Contents

Contents

Preface to the Ninth Edition

Preface to the Eighth Edition

In Memoriam

Prefaces to Previous Editions

Part 1: TECHNICAL THEORY

Chapter 1 The Technical Approach to Trading and Investing

Chapter 2 Charts

Chapter 3 The Dow Theory

Chapter 4 The Dow Theory in Practice

Chapter 5 The Dow Theory’s Defects

Chapter 5.1 The Dow Theory in the 20th and 21st Centuries

Chapter 6 Important Reversal Patterns

Chapter 7 Important Reversal Patterns — Continued

Chapter 8 Important Reversal Patterns — The Triangles

Chapter 9 Important Reversal Patterns — Continued

Chapter 10 Other Reversal Phenomena

Chapter 10.1 Short-Term Phenomena of Potential Importance

Chapter 11 Consolidation Formations

Chapter 12 Gaps

Chapter 13 Support and Resistance

Chapter 14 Trendlines and Channels

Chapter 15 Major Trendlines

Chapter 15.1 Trading the Averages in the 21st Century

Chapter 16 Technical Analysis of Commodity Charts

Chapter 16.1 Technical Analysis of Commodity Charts, Part 2

Chapter 17 A Summary and Some Concluding Comments

Chapter 17.1 Technical Analysis and Technology in the 21st

Century: The Computer and the Internet, Tools

of the Investment/ Information Revolution

Chapter 17.2 Advancements in Investment Technology

Part 2: TRADING TACTICS

Midword

Chapter 18 The Tactical Problem

Chapter 18.1 Strategy and Tactics for the Long-Term Investor

Chapter 19 The All-Important Details

Chapter 20 The Kind of Stocks We Want — The Speculator’s

Viewpoint

Chapter 20.1 The Kind of Stocks We Want — The Long-Term

Investor’s Viewpoint

Chapter 21 Selection of Stocks to Chart

Chapter 22 Selection of Stocks to Chart — Continued

Chapter 23 Choosing and Managing High-Risk Stocks: Tulip

Stocks, Internet Sector, and Speculative Frenzies

Chapter 24 The Probable Moves of Your Stocks

Chapter 25 Two Touchy Questions

Chapter 26 Round Lots or Odd Lots?

Chapter 27 Stop Orders

Chapter 28 What Is a Bottom — What Is a Top?

Chapter 28.1 Basing Point Case Analyzed, Illustrated

Chapter 29 Trendlines in Action

Chapter 30 Use of Support and Resistance

Chapter 31 Not All in One Basket

Chapter 32 Measuring Implications in Technical Chart Patterns

Chapter 33 Tactical Review of Chart Action

Chapter 34 A Quick Summation of Tactical Methods

Chapter 35 Effect of Technical Trading on Market Action

Chapter 36 Automated Trendline: The Moving Average

Chapter 37 “The Same Old Patterns”

Chapter 38 Balanced and Diversified

Chapter 39 Trial and Error

Chapter 40 How Much Capital to Use in Trading

Chapter 41 Application of Capital in Practice

Chapter 42 Portfolio Risk Management

Chapter 43 Stick to Your Guns

Appendix A Chapters A–D

Chapter A

The Probable Moves of Your Stocks

(Chapter 24 from the Seventh Edition)

Chapter B

A Discussion of Composite Leverage

(Chapter 42 from the Seventh Edition)

Chapter C

Normal Range-for-Price Indexes

(Appendix B, Fifth Edition)

Chapter D

Sensitivity Indexes of Stocks

Appendix C, Fifth Edition)

Appendix B

Section 1: The Mechanics of Building a Chart

(Chapter 23 from the Fifth and Seventh Editions)

Section 2: TEKNIPLAT Chart Paper

Appendix C

Technical Analysis of Futures Charts

(Chapter 16 from the Seventh Edition

by Richard McDermott)

Appendix D

Resources

Appendix E

Example of Trading Manual: Original Turtle

Trading Systems and Procedures

List of Illustrations and Text Diagrams

Index of Charts by Stock Name

Glossary

Bibliography

Index

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  • Anonymous

    Posted March 24, 2007

    Excellent Dow Theory Explanation

    Robert Edwards description and analysis of the Dow Theory is, as Professor Bassetti so astutely states on page 48, a ¿magisterial presentation¿. I am proud to have been asked to add my interpretation to the update since Dr. Edwards death. Believe it or not, the Dow Theory is alive and well in the 21st Century and this book will help you understand why.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted December 21, 2001

    This has got to be the best book I have ever read

    I deals with a lot in every area / I have just started reading it and they use mostly trend line analysis, although there is more than that in the book the // I would recommend this book for any investor, although it is a very 'condensed book' and takes time to read the 650 pages, it does talk about Dow theory some but not a lot of time spent, they have upgraded this book from it's origional printing so I probably would not be one to buy an older version as this was published in 2000 and there is a insert from January of 2001 so this is not a 'crusty old book' I would consider this on my top #1 list of books, Reversal patterns are discussed as well as 'shorts' 'consolidations' 'support and resistance' 'trendlines and channels' 'major trendlines' 'gaps' and TONS MORE

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