Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland / Edition 1

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Overview

There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the U.S. homeland that do not involve overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the United States. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency, but are emerging as potentially significant issues for future U.S. security. In this comprehensive work, Cordesman argues that new threats require new thinking, and offers a range of recommendations, from expanding the understanding of what constitutes a threat and bolstering Homeland defense measures, to bettering resource allocation and improving intelligence gathering and analysis.

No pattern of actual attacks on U.S. territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack might be in the future, what means of attack might be used, or how lethal new forms of attack might be. As a result, there is a major ongoing debate over the seriousness of the threat and how the U.S. government should react. This work is an invaluable contribution to that debate.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780275974275
  • Publisher: ABC-CLIO, Incorporated
  • Publication date: 11/28/2001
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 464
  • Sales rank: 1,134,732
  • Lexile: 1520L (what's this?)
  • Product dimensions: 5.90 (w) x 9.30 (h) x 1.20 (d)

Meet the Author

ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN is Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a military analyst for ABC News. A frequent commentator on National Public Radio, he is the author of numerous books on security issues and has served in a number of senior positions in the US government.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments xi
Chapter 1 The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism 1
The Growing Focus on Terrorism 7
Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare 8
Chapter 2 Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk 11
Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism 11
Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack 13
Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks 16
Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation 16
U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties 20
Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors 25
States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War 25
Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors 31
The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks" 32
Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives 32
Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases" 33
Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part of Homeland Defense 34
Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation 36
Chapter 3 Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats 39
Potential State Actors 39
A Department of State Assessment of State Threats 40
A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States 45
The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis 49
Foreign Terrorists and Extremists 51
Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action 54
Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists 57
Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants 74
Domestic Terrorists and Extremists 76
The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks 80
Probability versus Probability Theory 85
Chapter 4 Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response 89
Illustrative Attack Scenarios 92
"Conventional" Means of Attack 96
Weapons of Mass Destruction 97
Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack 101
The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons 108
The probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks 109
Methods of Delivery 117
Detection and Interception 118
Acquiring Chemical Weapons 119
The Impact of Technological Change 122
The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study 122
Political and Psychological Effects 124
The Problem of Response 125
Biological Weapons As Means of Attack 128
Categorizing the Biological Threat 135
Case Studies: Iraq and Russia 142
State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date 147
The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident 150
Cases in the United States 150
The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons 151
Means of Delivery 160
Manufacturing Biological Weapons 161
Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture 166
The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture 168
New Types of Biological Weapons 169
Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature 170
Agricultural and Ecological Attacks 174
The Problem of Response 177
Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack 194
The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons 195
The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons 196
Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack 199
Lethality and Effectiveness 207
Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon 216
The Problem of Delivery 222
Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks 222
Chapter 5 Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats 237
Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf 238
The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response 239
Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and Evolutionary Approach 239
The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" and the "Learning Curve Effect" 242
Chapter 6 U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability 245
Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting the Federal Response 247
Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort 249
The Growth of the Federal Effort 250
The FY2000 Program 251
The FY2001 Program 253
The Details of the Federal Effort 254
The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending 255
Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort 261
Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending 264
Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction 269
Chapter 7 Federal Efforts by Department and Agency 275
Department of Agriculture 276
National Animal Health Emergency Program 276
Central Intelligence Agency 277
Department of Commerce 289
Department of Defense 289
Analyzing the Role of the DOD 291
The Size of the Current DOD Effort 295
Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense 297
Key DOD Activities 300
Antiterrorism and Force Protection 303
Counterterrorism 306
Terrorism Consequence Management 307
Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response 318
Research and Development 323
Intelligence 324
Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures 324
The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program 327
Conclusions 328
Department of Energy 329
Office of Nonproliferation and National Security 329
Office of Emergency Management 330
Office of Defense Programs 330
Office of Emergency Response 330
Nuclear Emergency Search Team 330
Radiological Assistance Program 330
The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program 331
Research and Development 331
Environmental Protection Agency 331
Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response 332
On-Scene Coordinator 332
Federal Emergency Management Agency 332
Response and Recovery Directorate 333
Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate 333
U.S. Fire Administration 334
National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute 334
General Services Administration 336
Department of Health and Human Services 336
Metropolitan Medical Response Systems 337
National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program 339
Public Health Surveillance System for WMD 340
Research and Development 341
Department of the Interior 341
Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation 341
National Domestic Preparedness Office 345
Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support 350
National Domestic Preparedness Consortium 355
Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program 356
National Institute of Justice 357
National Security Community 358
Nuclear Regulatory Commission 358
Department of State 358
Embassy Protection 358
Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism 360
Bureau of Consular Affairs 362
Bureau of Diplomatic Security 362
Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program 362
Export Controls and Homeland Defense 363
Arms Control and Homeland Defense 363
Department of Transportation 364
Department of Treasury 364
Department of Veterans Affairs 366
Looking Beyond September 2001 367
Chapter 8 Federal, State, and Local Cooperation 373
Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism 374
West Nile Outbreak 375
The Lessons from "Jointness" 377
Chapter 9 How Other Nations Deal with These Threats 381
Leadership and Management 383
Policies and Strategies 384
Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response and Deterrent 385
Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting 386
Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats 387
Learning from Foreign Countries 388
Chapter 10 Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism 391
The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions 391
Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations 394
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management 394
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight 397
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing 398
Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control 399
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems 402
Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism 403
Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations 403
Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments 404
Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness and CBRN Terrorism Response 404
Gilmore Commissions: Standardization of Legal Terms 407
Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment 407
Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States of Concern 409
Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources 410
Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance 411
Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises 411
Chapter 11 Conclusions and Recommendations 415
Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland Defense 416
Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should Be in Charge of 417
Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower-Probability, Higher-Consequence Events 418
Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare 421
Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat 424
The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs 426
Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently 428
Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting 430
Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund" 434
Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities 435
Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement 438
The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved Intelligence 439
The Challenge of Operations 442
Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of Attack, and "New Paradigms" 443
The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal Effort 444
Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare 446
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