That Doesn't Work Anymore: Retooling Investment Economics in the Age of Disruption

by Robert S. Kricheff

Overview

Economic measures and concepts like GDP, inflation, business cycles and supply chains that were created decades ago are being disrupted and altered by technology. These changes affect asset values, interest rates, stock valuations, barriers to entry, as well as regression and correlation analysis. That Doesn’t Work Anymore discusses how to adapt traditional data to these changes and outlines ways to use newer and better tools that help you make good investment and business decisions.

The book's short pragmatic chapters grouped by topic with research and real-life anecdotes delve into how technological and societal developments have changed the meaning and value of traditional economic data-points, predictive tools, and business concepts. Robert S. Kricheff provides specifics on new and more valuable data sources as well as better methods for applying the information to investing, business, and even your career.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781547400775
Publisher:	De Gruyter
Publication date:	12/17/2018
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	266
File size:	4 MB
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Robert S. Kricheff is Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, and Global Strategist at Shenkman Capital, a global money management company. He regularly writes on markets and economics for the firm. Prior to joining Shenkman he was Head of High Yield Sector Strategy at Credit Suisse. Robert has a bachelors from New York University in Economics and Journalism and a masters from the University of London in Financial Economics. He has published two books and two e-books on investment analysis.

Table of Contents

Your Economic Thought Patterns Need to Change

1. Ignore the Averages – Means Move
2. Disrupters or Just Progress
3. Cultural Changes Make Economics Change
4. Cultural Impact of the Great Recession
5. Everyone Needs to Change How They Measure Things- Always
6. Rethink Correlations and Resist Regression
7. Goodhart’s "Underappreciated" Law

Big Economic Data-points

8. GDP - Revisions, Central Banks and Why It Is So Useless
9. Is Growth the Right Economic Measure
10. Is Growth the Right Financial Measure
11. Unemployment Versus New Employment
12. Wages are Different Now
13. Inflation – It Can Help, It can Hurt – But it is Definitely Not the Same as it Was
14. Interest Rates and Falsehoods
15. Currencies – Chicken&Egg
16. The Asset Value Magic Trick – Stocks, Real Estate, Gold, Bitcoin Etc.
17. Expectations Theories – Always Changing, Always Relevant

Applying Changes in Big Economic Data to Investing and Business

Old Capital, New Capital

18. The New Role of Capital/Capital Formation
19. Capital Flow Data is Dangerous
20. Follow The Money or Fail
21. Human Capital – The Real Data to Watch
22. Capital, Political Structure and Aristotle

Applying Changes in Capital Flows to Decisions in Investing, Business and Career

What Government Does to Economics

23. Government’s Role: Past and Future
24. Funding Government – Rethink It
25. Taxes – Good, Bad and Completely Lost
26. Expense Management and The Government – A Misnomer?
27. Factoring Modern Government Into Economic Decisions
28. More Grey and Purple -Government’s Ability to Function

Government’s Role Today and Its Impact on planning your Investing, Business and Career

Financial and Business Data is Different Now and It Has Always Been That Way

29. Business Structures – Think Again
30. Business Investment What People Watch and What You Should Watch
31. Business Cycle Theory and Why Its Wrong
32. Tearing Down and Running Around the Barriers to Entry
33. Supply Chains and Pasta
34. Energy and Fossilized Ideas
35. Measure of Trade and Fools
36. Measures of Globalization: What to Watch and Why It Matters
37. The Problem With Earnings Reports and Expectations
38. The Invisible Consumer: Customer Retention Data , Big Data and Customer Service
39. How Not to Measure A Company’s Success

Revaluating The Way to Look At Business for Investing, Business and Career

Value, Risk and Investment Metrics

40. What are Things Worth Right Now
41. Money Do We Need to Change How We Count It
42. Hard Assets with Soft Valuations
43. Does Volatility Matter
44. Value at Risk – Real or Fantasy
45. Other Measures: Risk Premiums, P/E Ratios and All That
46. Regression, Extrapolation and Historical Averages
47. Projections are So Yesterday , Probability is So Today

Using Better Value and Risk Metrics in investing, business and your career

Random&Concluding Topics

48. New Industries and What to Do About Them
49. Emerging Economies – New Paths or Same Old Cycles
50. Socially Responsible Investing /Environmental, Social and Governance Factors (SRI/ESG)
51. Economic Activism
52. Trend Watching and Catching

Never Close Your Eyes, or You Will Miss Something

Editorial Reviews

My first speech on Wall Street in 1969 was titled "The Best Investor Is a Social Scientist." After reading Bob’s enlightening assessment of how to successfully navigate markets during this time of rapid transition and disruption, I’m confident that my thesis is as true today as it was then. That Doesn’t Work Anymore is as valuable a tool for understanding how the world is changing as it is a guide for investors, business leaders and money managers to apply a broader scope and more rigor to work.

—Michael Milken, Chairman, Milken Institute

Kricheff explains why so many of the broadly used economic and financial tools need to be reconsidered in the face of rapid technological change. That Doesn’t Work Anymore highlights the unique challenges that industries and companies face as technology changes the world—particularly in the emerging markets.

—Eraj Shirvani, Credit Suisse AG, Vice Chairman – Emerging Markets　

Bob Kricheff is the Malcolm Gladwell of investing. He rightly forces you to question the stalwart theories and rules of economics during a time where technological disruption across all industries has become the norm. That Doesn’t Work Any More analyzes everything from Keyes vs. Hayek to the impact of music streaming, and even the food industry. It is a must read for anyone serious about capturing alpha in a rapidly changing economic landscape.

—Judy Joo, Chef, restaurateur, TV personality, and author

An entertaining and enlightening book that expertly questions the status quo of investment economics during this present period of rapid technological innovation. Bob challenges core economic assumptions and provides a great, and often humorous, guide for navigating investments through an environment of constant disruption. Well done Bobby K!

—Patrick Dyson, Partner, GoldenTree Asset Management

We are surrounded by data, and we must learn to use new forms of information to make better decisions. That Doesn’t Work Any More illustrates how modern technology has changed the data we use, and the context for how we use it. This book is a helpful guide of novel ways to analyze the economy and our businesses.

—Charles Rivkin, Chairman and CEO, Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA)

Business in the 21st century requires a different lens to interpret trends and construct approaches to investment and management. That Doesn’t Work Anymore is a splendid prism through which economic data and developments can be viewed and understood. Robert Kricheff has written a clear and concise volume that frames economic concepts in a contemporary light. It is easy to read with robust examples that enrich one’s understanding of particular topics. His insights are entertaining and invaluable.

—Robert I. Grossman, M.D., The Saul J. Farber Dean and Chief Executive Officer, NYU Langone Health

From the Publisher