The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America

by Peter Zeihan

Overview

The world is changing in ways most of us find incomprehensible. Terrorism spills out of the Middle East into Europe. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Japan vie to see who can be most aggressive. Financial breakdown in Asia and Europe guts growth, challenging hard-won political stability.

Yet for the Americans, these changes are fantastic. Alone among the world’s powers, only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure. That last piece -- American energy security -- is rapidly emerging as the most critical piece of the global picture.

The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America’s fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global order’s breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The common theme? Just as the global economy tips into chaos, just as global energy becomes dangerous, just as the world really needs the Americans to be engaged, the United States will be…absent.

In 2014’s The Accidental Superpower, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower, mapping out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780998505206
Publisher:	Zeihan on Geopolitics
Publication date:	01/01/2017
Pages:	422
Sales rank:	175,257
Product dimensions:	6.40(w) x 8.80(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert who marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today's complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow's headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military. Prior to his independent life, Zeihan put in stints at the U.S. State Department, the DC think tank community, and Stratfor, one of the world's premier private intelligence companies, where he served as vice president of analysis. He regularly contributes to a wide array of media including the New York Times, the Washington Post, Forbes, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, CNN, CNBC, Fox News, National Public Radio, Market-Watch, and others. His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014.

Table of Contents

Contents

INTRODUCTION The Journey to The Absent Superpower vii

PART I: Shale New World

CHAPTER 1 The First Shale Revolution 15
CHAPTER 2 The Second Shale Revolution 25
CHAPTER 3 The Third Shale Revolution 52
CHAPTER 4 Energy with an American Accent 70

PART II: The Disorder

CHAPTER 5 The End of the (Old) World 93
CHAPTER 6 The Twilight War 132
CHAPTER 7 The (Next) Gulf War 169
CHAPTER 8 The Tanker War 212
CHAPTER 9 The Sweet Sixteen 261
CHAPTER 10 It's a Supermajor World 276

PART III: The American Play

CHAPTER 11 Tools of the Trade 305
CHAPTER 12 Dollar Diplomacy in Southeast Asia 327
CHAPTER 13 Dollar Diplomacy in Latin America 342
CHAPTER 14 Shale New World 380

APPENDICES

APPENDIX I Shale and the Changing Face of Climate Change 383
APPENDIX II Other Shale Concerns 397
APPENDIX III Oil and Natural Gas Data 403

Acknowledgements 409

Editorial Reviews

06/12/2017
Throughout this impressive and sometimes irreverent look at the flow of the world’s energy resources, geopolitical analyst Zeihan (The Accidental Superpower) forecasts the 21st century, with surprising results. He predicts that in a coming “Disorder,” three theaters of war will disrupt the global flow of oil, yet the U.S. will remain uninvolved. The key is the nation’s ability to tap into massive shale reserves, which Zeihan sees leading to energy independence. Add in the U.S.’s capacity for sustained agricultural and economic production and lack of land borders with competent military adversaries, and it can retreat from long-set foreign policy patterns (in which it trades military protection for safe global trade) and return to its case-by-case dollar diplomacy of the early 20th century. Zeihan’s other predictions are even more dramatic. He anticipates Russia starting a war over oil in Eastern Europe, tensions between rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran erupting in the Persian Gulf, and the major nations of Northeast Asia clashing over control of the world’s most-trafficked waterways. Zeihan’s knowledge of current global affairs, regional conflicts, and the energy sector is impressive. (BookLife)

Publishers Weekly