The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data

by David Spiegelhalter

Overview

In this "important and comprehensive" (New Yorker) guide to statistical thinking, discover how you can use data and mathematics to gain a better understanding of life’s biggest problems.  

The age of big data has made statistical literacy more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter shows how to apply statistical reasoning to real-world problems. Whether we're analyzing preventative medical screening or the terrible crime sprees of serial killers, Spiegelhalter teaches us how to clarify questions, assumptions, and expectations and, most importantly, how to interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to the power of data.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781541675704
Publisher:	Basic Books
Publication date:	08/17/2021
Pages:	448
Product dimensions:	8.10(w) x 5.40(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

David Spiegelhalter is Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, having previously held the post of Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. In 2014 he was knighted for his services to statistics, and from 2017 to 2018 he served as president of the Royal Statistical Society. He is the author of The Art of Uncertainty and co-author of The Norm Chronicles. He lives in the United Kingdom.

Table of Contents

List of Figures xi

List of Tables xiii

Acknowledgements xv

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Getting Things in Proportion: Categorical Data and Percentages 19

Chapter 2 Summarizing and Communicating Numbers. Lots of Numbers 39

Chapter 3 Why Are We Looking at Data Anyway? Populations and Measurement 73

Chapter 4 What Causes What? 95

Chapter 5 Modelling Relationships Using Regression 121

Chapter 6 Algorithms, Analytics and Prediction 143

Chapter 7 How Sure Can We Be About What Is Going On? Estimates and Intervals 189

Chapter 8 Probability - the Language of Uncertainty and Variability 205

Chapter 9 Putting Probability and Statistics Together 229

Chapter 10 Answering Questions and Claiming Discoveries 253

Chapter 11 Learning from Experience the Bayesian Way 305

Chapter 12 How Things Go Wrong 341

Chapter 13 How We Can Do Statistics Better 361

Chapter 14 In Conclusion 379

Glossary 381

Notes 407

Index 419

Editorial Reviews

"An important and comprehensive new book"—Hannah Fry, The New Yorker

"David Spiegelhalter's The Art of Statistics shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world.... The Art of Statistics will serve students well. And it will be a boon for journalists eager to use statistics responsibly — along with anyone who wants to approach research and its reportage with healthy skepticism."—Evelyn Lamb, Nature

"Spiegelhalter goes beyond debunking numerical nonsense to deliver a largely mathematics-free but often formidable education on the vocabulary and techniques of statistical science.... An admirable corrective to fake news and sloppy thinking."—Kirkus

"A call to arms for greater societal data literacy.... Spiegelhalter's work serves as a reminder that there are passionate, self-aware statisticians who can argue eloquently that their discipline is needed now more than ever."—Financial Times

"The Art of Statistics is alight with Spiegelhalter's enthusiasm .... It leaves readers with a better handle on the ins and outs of data analysis, as well as a heightened awareness that, as Spiegelhalter writes, "Numbers may appear to be cold, hard facts, but ... they need to be treated with delicacy." —Sciencenews

"A book that crams in so much statistical information and nonetheless remains lucid and readable is highly improbable, and yet here it is. In an age of scientific clickbait, 'big data' and personalised medicine, this is a book that nearly everyone would benefit from reading"—Stuart Ritchie, The Spectator

"This is an excellent book. Spiegelhalter is great at explaining difficult ideas...Yes, statistics can be difficult. But much less difficult if you read this book"—The Evening Standard (UK)

"What David Spiegelhalter does here is provide a very thorough introductory grounding in statistics without making use of mathematical formulae. And it's remarkable. Spiegelhalter is warm and encouraging — it's a genuinely enjoyable read.... This book should be required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force."—Popular Science

"Do you trust headlines telling you...that bacon, ham and sausages carry the same cancer risk as cigarettes? No, nor do I. That is why we need a book like this that explains how such implausible nonsense arises in the first place. Written by a master of the subject...this book tells us to examine our assumptions. Bravo."—Standpoint

"Like the fictional investigator Sherlock Holmes, Spiegelhalter takes readers on a trail to challenge methodology and stats thrown at us by the media and others. But where other authors have attempted this and failed, he is inventive and clever in picking the right examples that spark the reader's interest to become active on their own."—Engineering & Technology

"What David Spiegelhalter does here is provide a very thorough introductory grounding in statistics without making use of mathematical formulae. And it's remarkable. Spiegelhalter is warm and encouraging — it's a genuinely enjoyable read.... This book should be required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force."—Pop Science Books

"In this wonderfully accessible introduction to modern statistics, David Spiegelhalter has created a worthy successor to classics such as Mooney's Facts from Figures. Using many real examples, he introduces the methods and underlying concepts, showing the power and elegance of statistics for gaining understanding and for informing decision-making."—David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle

"David Spiegelhalter combines clarity of thinking with superb communication skills and a wealth of experience of applying statistics to everyday problems. The result is The Art of Statistics, a book that manages to be enjoyable as well as informative: an engaging introduction for the lay person who wants to gain a better understanding of statistics. Even those with expertise in statistics will find much within these pages to stimulate the mind and cast new light on familiar topics. A real tour de force which deserves to be widely read."—Dorothy Bishop, professor of developmental neuropsychology and Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow in the Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford

"If I had to trust just one person to interrogate statistical data, I'd trust David Spiegelhalter. He is a master of the art. Here, he shows us how it's done. The result is brilliant; nothing short of an essential guide to finding things out — delivered through a series of detective-like investigations of specific examples ranging from sexual behavior to murder. The technical essentials are also all here: from averages to infographics, algorithms and Bayesian statistics - both their power and their limitations. All this makes The Art of Statistics a first call for all those setting out on a career or study that involves working with data. But beyond that, it's self-help for anyone with a serious desire to become a clued-up citizen in a world of numbers. If you want pat answers, or meat for your prejudices, go elsewhere. But if you want to develop the skills to see the world as it is, and to tell it how it is — honestly and seriously — this is the book."—Michael Blastland, co-author of The Tiger That Isn't: Seeing Through a World of Numbers

"David Spiegelhalter is probably the greatest living statistical communicator; more than that, he's one of the great communicators in any field. This marvelous book will transform your relationship with the numbers that swirl all around us. Read it and learn. I did."—Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist


"Some (including Einstein) define genius as the art of taking something complex and making it simple. In this equation-free, all-encompassing, and totally-understandable-by-anyone introduction to the ideas, tools, and practice of statistics, Spiegelhalter meets that definition. This book is perfect for anyone who has wanted to learn statistics but felt overwhelmed by complicated mathematical equations."—Scott Page, author of The Model Thinker

"Spiegelhalter carefully explains everything you need to know: Are numbers bringing clarity and insight, or are they being used to promote an agenda or attract attention? In an era of 'alternative facts' and 'fake news,' this is the right book at the right time."—JaneGreenhalgh, NPR

From the Publisher

2019-06-09
An exploration of "why we need statistics" and how to use them effectively.

The fact that Darrell Huff's delightful How to Lie With Statistics (1954) remains in print should convince readers that politicians, demagogues, and advertisers have never had trouble misleading us with numbers and graphs. Still, the study of statistics is widely considered boring, so popular books on the subject work hard to be entertaining; this expert primer mostly measures up. Distinguished British statistician Spiegelhalter (Statistics/Univ. of Cambridge; Sex by Numbers, 2015, etc.), a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, writes that "numbers do not speak for themselves; the context, language, and graphic design all contribute to the way communication is received. We have to acknowledge that we are telling a story." Some statistics are meaningless—e.g., based on average, a human has one testicle. Some are unhelpful: Vegetarians earn more than meat-eaters, but avoiding meat is unlikely to boost your income. An identical statistic can tell a horror story—e.g., a drug increases the risk of lung cancer by 14%, or not, if it increases the risk from 1 to 1.14 in 1,000. Unlike Huff's slim volume, Spiegelhalter goes beyond debunking numerical nonsense to deliver a largely mathematics-free but often formidable education on the vocabulary and techniques of statistical science. Almost everyone will understand how "median" differs from "average," and most will grasp the meaning of a bell curve or that "deduction" (using the rules of logic to come to a conclusion, Sherlock Holmes) is the converse of "induction" (using particular events to draw a general conclusion). Despite careful explanations and a plethora of tables and graphs, readers may strain to understand concepts such as the Poisson distribution, confidence intervals, bootstrapping, or standard deviation, but their efforts will be rewarded.

An admirable corrective to fake news and sloppy thinking.

Kirkus Reviews