Table of Contents
Introduction: On the Danger of War 1
1 A Short History of the US-China Relationship 19
2 The Problem of Distrust 59
3 Understanding Xi Jinping's Worldview: Ten Concentric Circles of Interest 77
4 The First Circle: The Politics of Staying in Power 85
5 The Second Circle: Securing National Unity 95
6 The Third Circle: Ensuring Economic Prosperity 103
7 The Fourth Circle: Making Economic Development Environmentally Sustainable 141
8 The Fifth Circle: Modernizing the Military 151
9 The Sixth Circle: Managing China's Neighborhood 179
10 The Seventh Circle: Securing China's Maritime Periphery-the Western Pacific, the Indo-Pacific, and the Quad 201
11 The Eighth Circle: Going West-the Belt and Road Initiative 221
12 The Ninth Circle: Increasing Chinese Leverage Across Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Gaining an Arctic Foothold 237
13 The Tenth Circle: Changing the Global Rules-Based Order 265
14 America's Emerging Strategic Response to Xi Jinping's China 283
15 Xi Jinping's China in the 2020s: The Politics of the Twentieth Party Congress 307
16 The Decade of Living Dangerously: Alternative Futures for US-China Relations 331
17 Navigating an Uncertain Future: The Case for Managed Strategic Competition 357
Epilogue 397
Acknowledgments 401
Index 405