The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?
153The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?
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Overview
To better understand the potential impact of these forces, the authors of The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 imagine three different futures and predict the Caspian Sea region’s place within each. In the first scenario, the world is dominated by economic competition, and those countries around the Caspian Sea are leading gas and oil exporters. The second scenario describes a world dominated by geopolitical rivalry and resource nationalism in which the oil and gas sectors are state-controlled. And the last tells the story of a world where climate challenges have initiated a global shift from carbon-based to low-carbon energy sources.
A fascinating and timely exercise, The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 will be required reading for all those invested in global politics and the future of energy security.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9789059723610 |
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Publisher: | Eburon Academic Publishers |
Publication date: | 09/15/2010 |
Pages: | 153 |
Product dimensions: | 6.20(w) x 9.40(h) x 0.50(d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Preface 9
1 Introduction: The Caspian Sea region 11
1.1 Constructing the Caspian Sea region in a turbulent political space 11
1.2 Does it make sense to speak of a distinct Caspian region" 13
1.3 New identities are taking shape 14
1.4 The Caspian is emerging as a natural resource export region 15
1.5 International companies have moved in 17
1.6 Security challenges have not interrupted the flow of Caspian oil and gas 17
1.7 Could the Silk Road be revived" 19
1.8 An important region undergoing complex changes 20
Part 1 What Will Shape The Future Of The Caspian Sea Region 21
2 Caspian natural resources - blessing and curse 23
2.1 Global oil and gas shortages may create windfalls and challenges in the Caspian region 23
2.2 Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are becoming international oil and gas players - but for how long" 26
2.3 Oil revenue management needs to improve in order to avoid the 'resource curse' 33
2.4 Kazakhstan: a major player also in coal, uranium and copper 37
2.5 Hydropower: untapped potential, uncertain profitability 38
2.6 Unsustainable irrigation practices and rapid urbanization threaten freshwater supplies 40
2.7 Drought and pollution threaten agriculture 43
2.8 Overfishing, pollution and fragmentation of waterways threaten fish stocks 45
2.9 Climate change will exacerbate environmental pressures and conflict potential 47
2.10 Powerful international climate policy could change the value of the region's resources 47
2.11 Could the Silk Road be revived in a low-carbon future" 49
3 Inside the Caspian countries: stable or unstable" 51
3.1 Prospects for democracy are not good, but better in the South Caucasus than Central Asia 51
3.2 Centralized regimes leave possible succession problems 53
3.3 Rivalry among elite groupings could add to future instability 54
3.4 Russian exodus opens the door to national awakening with for other foreign influences 57
3.5 Pan-Turkism: Bang or flop" 61
3.6 Labour emigration, brain drain and erosion of the education system threaten the skills base 63
3.7 Religious secularism dominates, but radical challenges exist 64
3.8 Poverty and inequality could provide fertile ground for radical movements, and crack-downs could polarize 65
3.9 Foreign forces may increase their religious influence 67
4 A new geopolitical reality is still taking shape 69
4.1 The pipeline game could have multiple winners 70
4.2 Russia and China compete for influence in Turkmenistan 71
4.3 The Nabucco project struggles against heavy odds 74
4.4 Russia grows stronger in the region but becomes more vulnerable 76
4.5 Moscow spares no effort to build an alliance with Kazakhstan - but Astana will not be dictated 77
4.6 Military muscle is not that useful in the Caspian, but Moscow counts on it 79
4.7 NATO is reluctant to venture into the South Caucasus, but Georgia is desperate to join the alliance 80
4.8 China increases its influence and is met by scepticism 81
4.9 Turkey has been a cautious player but works on new opportunities 83
4.10 Iran remains defiant and looks for an opening 84
4.11 Afghanistan dictates new strategic priorities and creates a drug flow 86
4.12 Could the SCO become a capable regional security organization" 88
4.13 Abundant conflict material in the region remains a risk 90
4.14 The Russo-Georgian war solved nothing but made regional splits more pronounced 95
Part 2 Scenarios For The Caspian Sea Region 2025 99
5 Scenario 1 Caspia Inc. 103
6 Scenario 2 National Giants 111
7 Scenario 3 Trade and Transit 121
8 Wildcards 131
Wildcard 1 Environmental collapse 132
Wildcard 2 Combustible neighbours 133
Wildcard 3 Internecine war 135
Wildcard 4 Democratic wave 136
9 Comparisons and implications 139
There is more to the Caspian than oil and gas 140
Kazakhstan seems to be holding a winning hand 140
Can Azerbaijan manage the rise and the inevitable fall" 141
Watch out for Uzbekistan! 141
In China's field of gravity 141
Russia goes for too much but Turkey commands respect 142
The 'Deep South' - doomed to catastrophe" 142
Rules will be set in the Caspian bazaar 143
Appendices 146
References 149
About the Authors 153