The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?

The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?

The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?

The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025: Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?

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Overview

With security of energy supply high on the international agenda and fears of resource shortages resurfacing, the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea are stepping onto the global stage, claiming for themselves new roles as providers of resources to the world. But with this newfound role come several uncertainties. How will the current recession affect these recently independent countries? How will global climate policy alter the value of their massive hydrocarbon reserves? And might the wealth generated from the sale of these resources lead to armed conflict within the region?

            
To better understand the potential impact of these forces, the authors of The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 imagine three different futures and predict the Caspian Sea region’s place within each. In the first scenario, the world is dominated by economic competition, and those countries around the Caspian Sea are leading gas and oil exporters. The second scenario describes a world dominated by geopolitical rivalry and resource nationalism in which the oil and gas sectors are state-controlled. And the last tells the story of a world where climate challenges have initiated a global shift from carbon-based to low-carbon energy sources.

            
A fascinating and timely exercise, The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 will be required reading for all those invested in global politics and the future of energy security.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9789059723610
Publisher: Eburon Academic Publishers
Publication date: 09/15/2010
Pages: 153
Product dimensions: 6.20(w) x 9.40(h) x 0.50(d)

About the Author

Morten Anker is a senior consultant at the research and consulting firm Econ Pöyry. Pavel K. Baev is a research professor at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Bjørn Brunstad is an expert in foresight and scenario planning, dividing his time between the Center for Climate Strategy at the Norwegian School of Management and Econ Pöyry. Indra Øverland is acting head of the Department of Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and associate professor at the University of Tromso. Stina Torjesen is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

Table of Contents

Preface 9

1 Introduction: The Caspian Sea region 11

1.1 Constructing the Caspian Sea region in a turbulent political space 11

1.2 Does it make sense to speak of a distinct Caspian region" 13

1.3 New identities are taking shape 14

1.4 The Caspian is emerging as a natural resource export region 15

1.5 International companies have moved in 17

1.6 Security challenges have not interrupted the flow of Caspian oil and gas 17

1.7 Could the Silk Road be revived" 19

1.8 An important region undergoing complex changes 20

Part 1 What Will Shape The Future Of The Caspian Sea Region 21

2 Caspian natural resources - blessing and curse 23

2.1 Global oil and gas shortages may create windfalls and challenges in the Caspian region 23

2.2 Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are becoming international oil and gas players - but for how long" 26

2.3 Oil revenue management needs to improve in order to avoid the 'resource curse' 33

2.4 Kazakhstan: a major player also in coal, uranium and copper 37

2.5 Hydropower: untapped potential, uncertain profitability 38

2.6 Unsustainable irrigation practices and rapid urbanization threaten freshwater supplies 40

2.7 Drought and pollution threaten agriculture 43

2.8 Overfishing, pollution and fragmentation of waterways threaten fish stocks 45

2.9 Climate change will exacerbate environmental pressures and conflict potential 47

2.10 Powerful international climate policy could change the value of the region's resources 47

2.11 Could the Silk Road be revived in a low-carbon future" 49

3 Inside the Caspian countries: stable or unstable" 51

3.1 Prospects for democracy are not good, but better in the South Caucasus than Central Asia 51

3.2 Centralized regimes leave possible succession problems 53

3.3 Rivalry among elite groupings could add to future instability 54

3.4 Russian exodus opens the door to national awakening with for other foreign influences 57

3.5 Pan-Turkism: Bang or flop" 61

3.6 Labour emigration, brain drain and erosion of the education system threaten the skills base 63

3.7 Religious secularism dominates, but radical challenges exist 64

3.8 Poverty and inequality could provide fertile ground for radical movements, and crack-downs could polarize 65

3.9 Foreign forces may increase their religious influence 67

4 A new geopolitical reality is still taking shape 69

4.1 The pipeline game could have multiple winners 70

4.2 Russia and China compete for influence in Turkmenistan 71

4.3 The Nabucco project struggles against heavy odds 74

4.4 Russia grows stronger in the region but becomes more vulnerable 76

4.5 Moscow spares no effort to build an alliance with Kazakhstan - but Astana will not be dictated 77

4.6 Military muscle is not that useful in the Caspian, but Moscow counts on it 79

4.7 NATO is reluctant to venture into the South Caucasus, but Georgia is desperate to join the alliance 80

4.8 China increases its influence and is met by scepticism 81

4.9 Turkey has been a cautious player but works on new opportunities 83

4.10 Iran remains defiant and looks for an opening 84

4.11 Afghanistan dictates new strategic priorities and creates a drug flow 86

4.12 Could the SCO become a capable regional security organization" 88

4.13 Abundant conflict material in the region remains a risk 90

4.14 The Russo-Georgian war solved nothing but made regional splits more pronounced 95

Part 2 Scenarios For The Caspian Sea Region 2025 99

5 Scenario 1 Caspia Inc. 103

6 Scenario 2 National Giants 111

7 Scenario 3 Trade and Transit 121

8 Wildcards 131

Wildcard 1 Environmental collapse 132

Wildcard 2 Combustible neighbours 133

Wildcard 3 Internecine war 135

Wildcard 4 Democratic wave 136

9 Comparisons and implications 139

There is more to the Caspian than oil and gas 140

Kazakhstan seems to be holding a winning hand 140

Can Azerbaijan manage the rise and the inevitable fall" 141

Watch out for Uzbekistan! 141

In China's field of gravity 141

Russia goes for too much but Turkey commands respect 142

The 'Deep South' - doomed to catastrophe" 142

Rules will be set in the Caspian bazaar 143

Appendices 146

References 149

About the Authors 153

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