The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019

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Overview

Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” after five years of desperate stimulus — and what to do about it now

Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can...

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The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019

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Overview

Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” after five years of desperate stimulus — and what to do about it now

Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.

Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.

But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation—weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.

Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . .

  • BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don’t, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably.
  • INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800.
  • FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000.
  • GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983–2008.

Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.

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Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
“I have worked in the highest level of U.S. politics and see a disaster in the making as the government employs endless stimulus plans and bailouts that destroy the very free market capitalistic system that has made it the richest major country in the world. Harry Dent adds the reality of aging societies and slowing demographic trends to show why such reckless debt-driven policies are certain to fail.”
David Stockman, author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America

“Whether you know it or not, you are careening toward a demographic cliff. With this riveting book, esteemed economic forecaster and visionary Harry Dent has produced a must read for the next decade and beyond. It will keep you flying high while the rest of the world tumbles blindly through the turbulence.”

George Gilder, author of Knowledge and PowerWealth and Poverty, Microcosm, and Telecosm

“Harry Dent has drawn on his unique approach to demographic forecasting as a speaker at my events for twenty years. Over the last three decades, he has accurately predicted the 1990s surging markets, Japan’s twenty-year economic tailspin, and the U.S. market peak in 2007. His ability to help people understand, in simple terms, some of the most important forces that have helped shape our economy is invaluable. Read this book and find out what impact Harry believes demographics will have on our economy in the coming years.”
Anthony Robbins, entrepreneur, author, and peak performance strategist

“In Endgame I outlined the global debt that makes a financial crisis inevitable. Harry Dent goes further and shows how a succession of demographic slowdowns following Japan and the United States will make the endless government stimulus plans doomed to fail. He even shows that real estate will not be the same again with rising sellers versus buyers. This is a must-read book for prospering in the debt crisis ahead.”

John Mauldin, author of Code Red, chairman of Mauldin Economics, and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box

Kirkus Reviews
2013-12-04
Talk about timing the market: Demographer Dent (The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History, 2009, etc.) studies generational trends that suggest hard times are in store, particularly for younger people entering the workforce. Though the economy seems to be recovering, writes the author, this is a result of "endless government stimulus" that must come to an end. With the retirement of the baby boomer generation and the subsequent restrictions imposed on the economy by the fact that fewer workers will be replacing them, consumer spending will decline, since those workers will likely have less money to spend even as the boomers are in the "downward phase" in their own purchasing patterns. The "echo boomers," whose births are spread out from 1976 to 2007, will eventually replace the baby boomers, and they're significantly more numerous. Meanwhile, the Gen Xers--less than half the echo boomers' number--are going to have to pull a lot of weight. The near-term result? A "coma economy" such as Japan's. The good news, if it is in fact good news, is that China is not likely to overwhelm the West economically, since its demographic future is even more dire. The bad news for nativists is that in order to re-emerge economically, the United States will have to see a population growth to 420 million by 2060, and much of that will have to come from immigration, which is likely instead to slow in the coming "winter season." Dent closes by examining the place of social entitlements in a newly austere economic landscape; refreshingly, he urges that "there should be "a government-driven one-payer system for the most basic health care services for all," adding that the free market system is intended to benefit everyone, "not just the strongest." Provocative reading: a bad-case, if not worst-case, scenario that portends tough times ahead. Let's hope Dent is erring on the side of pessimism.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781591847274
  • Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
  • Publication date: 1/7/2014
  • Pages: 368
  • Sales rank: 145,819
  • Product dimensions: 6.30 (w) x 9.10 (h) x 1.30 (d)

Meet the Author


HARRY S. DENT, JR. is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead (2009) among many other economic and financial books. He is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation and founder of Dent Research, which publishes Survive and Prosper, Boom and Bust and The HS Dent Forecast. He consults to Fortune 100 companies and many new ventures and lectures widely.
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Customer Reviews

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Sort by: Showing all of 10 Customer Reviews
  • Anonymous

    Posted January 31, 2014

    Recommended

    A lot of statistics and graph, with cycles explained.

    2 out of 7 people found this review helpful.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted January 6, 2015

    Lazarus

    I walk in and sit down

    0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted July 11, 2014

    Great information!  I plan on using the demographic data for my

    Great information!  I plan on using the demographic data for my entire life!

    0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.

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  • Anonymous

    Posted January 24, 2014

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    Posted March 19, 2014

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