×

Uh-oh, it looks like your Internet Explorer is out of date.

For a better shopping experience, please upgrade now.

The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream
     

The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream

by Peter Lynch
 

ISBN-10: 0521857295

ISBN-13: 9780521857291

Pub. Date: 11/28/2006

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

In the early twentieth century, Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that scientific weather prediction would one day become a practical reality. The method of computing changes in the state of the atmosphere, which he mapped out in great detail, is essentially the method used today. Before his ideas could bear fruit, several advances were needed: better understanding of the

Overview

In the early twentieth century, Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that scientific weather prediction would one day become a practical reality. The method of computing changes in the state of the atmosphere, which he mapped out in great detail, is essentially the method used today. Before his ideas could bear fruit, several advances were needed: better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere; stable computational algorithms to integrate the equations of motion; regular observations of the free atmosphere; and powerful automatic computer equipment.

By 1950, advances on all these fronts were sufficient to permit the first computer weather forecast to be made. Over the ensuing 50 years, progress in numerical weather prediction has been dramatic, allowing Richardson's dream to become a reality. Weather prediction and climate modelling have now reached a high level of sophistication.

This book tells the story of Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of practical weather forecasting and climate modelling. It has a complete reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses in detail the causes of the failure of this forecast. It also includes a description of current practice, with particular emphasis on the work of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The book will appeal to researchers in atmospheric science, numerical weather prediciton, climate modelling and computer simulation, and to students in these fields, as well as readers interested in the history of meteorology and of computation.

About the Author:
Peter Lynch is Met Eireann Professor of Meteorology at University College Dublin (UCD), and Director of the UCD Meteorology and Climate Centre

Product Details

ISBN-13:
9780521857291
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Publication date:
11/28/2006
Edition description:
First Edition
Pages:
290
Product dimensions:
6.85(w) x 9.72(h) x 0.71(d)

Table of Contents


Guiding signs     viii
Preface     ix
Acknowledgements     xi
Weather Prediction by Numerical Process     1
The problem     1
Vilhelm Bjerknes and scientific forecasting     4
Outline of Richardson's life and work     10
The origin of Weather Prediction by Numerical Process     14
Outline of the contents of WPNP     18
Preview of remaining chapters     25
The fundamental equations     29
Richardson's general circulation model     30
The basic equations     31
The vertical velocity equation     39
Temperature in the stratosphere     42
Pressure co-ordinates     44
The oscillations of the atmosphere     47
The Laplace tidal equations     48
Normal modes of the atmosphere     49
Atmospheric tides     55
Numerical solution of the Laplace tidal equations     56
The barotropic forecast     63
Richardson's model and data     63
The finite difference scheme     65
Richardson's conclusions     68
The global numerical model     70
Extending the forecast     72
Non-divergent and balanced initial conditions     75
Reflections on the single layer model     77
The solution algorithm     79
The finite difference method     79
Integration in time     81
The Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy stability criterion     85
The Richardson grid     87
The equations for the strata     89
The computational algorithm     92
Observations and initial fields     97
Aerological observations     97
Dines' meteorograph     100
The Leipzig charts     104
Preparation of the initial fields     109
Richardson's forecast     117
What Richardson actually predicted: 20 numbers     117
Scaling the equations of motion     120
Analysis of the initial tendencies     125
The causes of the forecast failure     131
Max Margules and the 'impossibility' of forecasting     133
Balance and initialisation     137
Balance in the atmosphere     137
The slow manifold     140
Techniques of initialisation     142
The swinging spring     146
Digital filter initialisation     152
Smoothing the forecast     159
Reconstruction of the forecast     159
Richardson's five smoothing methods     162
Digital filtering of the initial data     164
Extension of the forecast     175
The ENIAC integrations     181
The 'Meteorology Project'     182
The filtered equations     187
The first computer forecast     190
The barotropic model     196
Multi-level models     199
Primitive equation models     202
General circulation models and climate modelling     206
Numerical weather prediction today     209
Observational data     209
Objective analysis     213
Progress in computing     219
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts     221
Meso-scale modelling     228
Chaos, predictability and ensemble forecasting     231
Fulfilment of the dream     243
Richardson's explanation of his glaring error     243
The 'forecast factory'     246
Richardson's dream     248
Table of notation     251
Milestones in Richardson's life and career     254
Laplace tidal equations: separation of variables     256
Richardson's forecast factory: the {dollar}64 000 question     259
References     262
Index     274

Customer Reviews

Average Review:

Post to your social network

     

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

See all customer reviews