The Emergence Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis

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A framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States.

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Overview

A framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States.

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Editorial Reviews

Parameters
Will tweak the interests of academic and defense establishments, as well as anyone involved in long-range assessments of America's future.
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833030566
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Publication date: 11/14/2001
  • Pages: 190
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.40 (d)

Table of Contents

Preface
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Ch. 1 Introduction 1
Organization 3
Ch. 2 The Rise of a Peer 7
What Is a Peer Competitor? 7
The Proto-Peer's Strategies 13
The Reform Strategy 14
The Revolution Strategy 20
The Alliance Strategy 30
The Conquest Strategy 37
Ch. 3 The Role of the Hegemon 45
The Hierarchy in the International State System 45
The Conciliate Strategy 54
The Co-opt Strategy 57
The Constrain Strategy 60
The Compete Strategy 63
The Effect of Power Preponderance 65
Principal Rivalries 67
Ch. 4 Modeling the Peer-Hegemon Relationship 73
The Decision Calculus 75
Modeling the Interaction Between a Proto-Peer and a Hegemon 78
Identifying the Attributes that Lead to Competition and Rivalry 89
Final Observations and Caveats Regarding the Model 105
Ch. 5 Conclusions 109
App. A Decision Rules 113
App. B Code for the Prototype Hegemon-Peer Model 135
App. C The Democratic Peace Idea 147
Bibliography 161
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