The End of Macro-Economics?

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Overview

The distinguished feature of developed market economies is incessant qualitative change. New consumer and capital goods, and new methods of production and distribution are continuously being created and old ones destroyed.Macro-economics looks at economic activity in terms of aggregates and averages. It obscures rather than assists an understanding of the essential features of economic activity in a market economy. Macro-economics makes unwarranted assertions about the stability of empirical relationships between aggregates, assumes their unchanging composition, abstracts from essential elements of economic activity, and uses concepts out of context. It is impossible to predict to what extent an increase in aggregate
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Overview

The distinguished feature of developed market economies is incessant qualitative change. New consumer and capital goods, and new methods of production and distribution are continuously being created and old ones destroyed.Macro-economics looks at economic activity in terms of aggregates and averages. It obscures rather than assists an understanding of the essential features of economic activity in a market economy. Macro-economics makes unwarranted assertions about the stability of empirical relationships between aggregates, assumes their unchanging composition, abstracts from essential elements of economic activity, and uses concepts out of context. It is impossible to predict to what extent an increase in aggregate demand will be reflected in price rises and to what extent in output increases. In order to know what significance to attach to a numrical value for any aggregate, one has to disaggregate. Aggregate concepts such as the NAIRU, the quantity of money, the output gap and competitiveness are all misleading, and have contributed to the implementation of unsuccessful and sometimes harmful policies. Almost twenty years since it was publicly acknowledged that a government could not spend its way out of a recession, it has been discovered that the find-tuning of bank lending coes not work either. In the United Kingdom the operation of monetary policy has been uncoupled from macro-economic theory. The cycle is an intrinsic part of the deregulated developed market economy and one cannot have the benefits of growth without it. Repeated surveys have shown the complete failure of all attempts at short-term forecasting using macro-economic models. Only pattern predictions are possible. Macro-economic theory is a dead-end in the history of economic thought. The way forward is to return to the classical tradition which emphasises the importance of uncertainty, innovation, entrepreneurship and institutional evolution, and has quite different policy implications. Policies to approach full employment must facilitate the adaptation of workers from old jobs to new jobs. Taxes should be shifted from employment to consumption and subsidies should shift from unemployment to the search for, and acceptance of, new employment. In 1973, the Institute published a paper by Ludwig Lachmann, the implications of which were described in the Editor's preface as 'Revolutionary'. Lachmann argued that economics had taken a wrong turn, relying too much on the analysis of macro-economic aggregates and losing sight of the subject's micro-economic foundations. In his words, 'Macro-economic theories without micro-economic substructure are bound to rest upon rather hollow foundations'. Lachmann criticised some of the favoured macro-economic remedies of the 1970s (such as income policies) as depriving '... the market of its main function'. Twenty years on, in Hobart Paper #126, Professor David Simpson takes up Lachmann's theme, arguing that many economists are still set on the wrong course and that there is an undue emphasis on macro-economic thinking. From his opening paragraph, Professor Simpson's message is clear: "The essential distinguishing feature of the developed market economy is incessant qualitative change ... Aggregate concepts such as the natural rate of unemployment and the total quality of money obscure rather than clarify thinking about the market economy".

Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780255363389
  • Publisher: Institute of Economic Affairs
  • Publication date: 10/28/1994
  • Pages: 79
  • Series: Hobart Papers

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