The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment

Overview

Building on prior RAND research analyzing the motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extremist groups operating in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these countries, the development and perpetuation of extremist ideological frameworks, and national and international government response efforts.

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Overview

Building on prior RAND research analyzing the motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extremist groups operating in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these countries, the development and perpetuation of extremist ideological frameworks, and national and international government response efforts.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780833046581
  • Publisher: Rand Publishing
  • Publication date: 7/16/2009
  • Pages: 264
  • Product dimensions: 6.00 (w) x 8.90 (h) x 0.90 (d)

Meet the Author

Peter Chalk (PhD, political science, University of British Columbia) is an associate political scientist at RAND. Expertise includes South East Asia, international terrorism, terrorism and other emerging threats.

Angel M. Rabasa (Ph.D., History, Harvard University) is a senior policy analyst at RAND. He was previously the Deputy Director, Office of Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Singapore Affairs at the Department of State and has held numerous State and Defense Department positions.

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Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures ix

Tables xi

Summary xiii

Acknowledgments xix

Abbreviations xxi

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Chapter 2 Malay Muslim Extremism in Southern Thailand 5

Militant Context 5

Background to the Southern Thai Conflict 5

The Malay Muslim Militant Struggle 7

1960-1998 7

1998-2004 10

2004-Present 12

Militant Groupings 17

Structure and Size 17

Goals and Motivational Drivers 19

Patterns of Recruitment and Radicalization 23

Traction Among the Local Population 25

External Dimensions 26

Assessment 29

Chapter 3 Muslim and Communist Extremism in the Philippines 33

Militant Context 33

Militant Groupings 37

Moro Islamic Liberation Front 37

Misuari Breakaway Group 46

Abu Sayyaf Group 49

Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army 57

Assessment 63

Chapter 4 Terrorism and National Security in Indonesia 67

Militant Context 67

Militant Groupings-Nationalist Islamists 69

Laskar Jihad 69

Front Pembela Islam 71

Antistatist Islamists 75

Laskar Jundullah, KOMPAK Movement, AMIN, and Ring Banten 75

Attitude of Local Population 78

Nascent Jihadist Networks 80

Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia 80

Assessment 83

Chapter 5 The Regional Dimension: Jemaah Islamiyah 87

Background 87

Objectives 89

Structure and Size 92

Operational Activities 96

Participation in Communal Violence in Maluku and Sulawesi 96

Early Terrorist Activity: 2000-2001 97

Terrorist Activity: 2002-2005 98

JI Traction in Southeast Asia 100

JI's Future Prospects 102

Chapter 6 Counterterrorism and National Security in Thailand 105

Historical and Political Context 105

Security Resources Deployed to the South 107

Key CounterterrorismMeasures in the South 111

The Thaksin Administration 111

The Post-September 2006 Situation 115

Peace-Building and Reconciliation 116

Security 118

Dialogue 120

Assessment 122

Chapter 7 Counterterrorism and National Security in the Philippines 131

Historical and Political Context 131

Resources Allocated to Internal Security 134

Key COIN and Counterterrorism Measures 137

Assessment 141

Chapter 8 Counterterrorism and National Security in Indonesia 149

Historical and Political Context 149

Resources Allocated to the National Security Mission 152

Key Counterterrorism Programs and Measures 157

Assessment 160

Chapter 9 National Security in Southeast Asia: The U.S. Dimension 167

Main Components of U.S. Security and Counterterrorism Assistance 167

International Military Education and Training Program 168

Foreign Military Financing Program 168

Antiterrorism Assistance Program 168

International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement Program 169

International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program 169

Economic Support Fund 170

U.S. Security Assistance to Primary Partner Nations in Southeast Asia 170

Thailand 170

Indonesia 172

The Philippines 175

Challenges Associated with the Implementation of U.S. Security Assistance in Southeast Asia 179

Chapter 10 Conclusion 185

The Current Terrorist Environment in Southeast Asia 185

Policy Recommendations 188

Appendix: Exploring the Potential for Emergent Operational and Logistical Terrorist Hubs in Cambodia 199

Bibliography 215

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