The Fate of the Species: Why the Human Race May Cause Its Own Extinction and How We Can Stop It

by Fred Guterl

Overview

In the history of planet earth, mass species extinctions have occurred five times, about once every 100 million years. A "sixth extinction" is known to be underway now, with over 200 species dying off every day. Not only that, but the cause of the sixth extinction is also the source of single biggest threat to human life: our own inventions.

What this bleak future will truly hold, though, is much in dispute. Will our immune systems be attacked by so-called super bugs, always evolving, and now more easily spread than ever? Will the disappearance of so many species cripple the biosphere? Will global warming transform itself into a runaway effect, destroying ecosystems across the planet? In this provocative book, Fred Guterl examines each of these scenarios, laying out the existing threats, and proffering the means to avoid them.

This book is more than a tour of an apocalyptic future; it is a political salvo, an antidote to well-intentioned but ultimately ineffectual thinking. Though it's honorable enough to switch light bulbs and eat home-grown food, the scope of our problems, and the size of our population, is too great. And so, Guterl argues, we find ourselves in a trap: Technology got us into this mess, and it's also the only thing that can help us survive it. Guterl vividly shows where our future is heading, and ultimately lights the route to safe harbor.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781608196241
Publisher:	Bloomsbury Publishing
Publication date:	05/22/2012
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	224
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

Fred Guterl is the executive editor of Scientific American. In 10 years working for Newsweek, he worked closely with Fareed Zakaria to cover the most important trends in science, technology, and international affairs. He has also appeared on Charlie Rose, the Today Show, CNN, and other television programs to discuss popular issues in science. Guterl holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from the University of Rochester and has taught science writing at Princeton University. He lives in Montclair, New Jersey with his wife and two children.
Fred Guterl is executive editor of Scientific American. In ten years working for Newsweek, he worked closely with Fareed Zakaria to cover the most important trends in science, technology, and international affairs. He has also appeared on CNN, Charlie Rose, the Today Show, and on other television programs to discuss popular issues in science. Guterl holds a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from the University of Rochester, and has taught science writing at Princeton University. He lives in Montclair, New Jersey, with his wife and two children.

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

1 Superviruses 7

2 Extinction 28

3 Climate Change 50

4 Ecosystems 84

5 Synthetic Biology 95

6 Machines 126

Ingenuity 167

Acknowledgments 187

Notes 189

Index 199

Editorial Reviews

Thanks to the sheer size of the human population and our increasing reliance upon technology, there are now more opportunities than ever for the human race to inadvertently cause its own extinction. Guterl, executive editor of Scientific American, offers a tour of “what-ifs”: a civilization-dooming supervirus, a disastrous paradigm shift caused by climate change, a catastrophic failure of the computer systems that regulate infrastructure and the world economy. There have been at least five mass extinctions in Earth’s history, and Guterl warns that there could be another. Grounding his speculation firmly in cutting-edge science, Guterl details the lives and work of a number of scientists who have developed computer systems for NASA, engineered lethal viruses using easily accessible lab equipment, or created security software to detect and neutralize increasingly sophisticated computer viruses. Despite its engaging prose, the book suffers from uneven content, occasionally falling into Hollywood fear factory clichés. However, with its enormous scope, the book functions as an introduction to contemporary immunology, computer science, climatology, and more. While Guterl’s pessimism is not for the faint of heart, it turns out to be remarkably entertaining to ponder the ways that the human race might wipe itself out. Agent: Sydelle Kramer, Susan Rabiner Agency. (June)

Publishers Weekly

An intelligent account of the mess we are making of the planet.” —Kirkus Reviews

“While Guterl's pessimism is not for the faint of heart, it turns out to be remarkably entertaining.” —Publishers Weekly

“This is a beautifully written book that will make you think and worry. Fred Guterl explains everything that could go wrong in lucid prose. It is an arresting, though unnerving combination.” —Fareed Zakaria, author of The Post-American World and host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS

“It feels strange to call a book about the end of humanity elegant and engaging, but so be it. Fred Guterl has researched the many, many ways in which we could bring destruction down upon our own heads, bringing them up to date with the latest research in climatology, synthetic biology, and computer science. I hope the world doesn't crash, but if it does, I can't say Guterl didn't warn me.” —Carl Zimmer, author of A Planet of Viruses

“An important, awe-inspiring book. This is a straight-from-the-shoulder assessment of the future of a humankind trapped by its own technological prowess. The Fate of the Species is written by a master of his craft with provocative, thoughtful elegance. Guterl combines measured optimism with scary scenarios in a telling synthesis of cutting edge science made understandable. This book should be required reading for everyone, and I mean everyone.” —Brian Fagan, archaeologist and author of Elixir and The Great Warming

“Guterl has written 'How We Die' for the human species. From reverse genetics that creates a deadly flu virus to climate change that kills the Asian monsoons, his scenarios are so fascinating and compelling you almost forget what's at stake. Almost.” —Sharon Begley, former science columnist for Newsweek and The Wall St. Journal

“The human species has no shortage of ways to meet its end—superviruses, climate change, global famine. But unlike other species that have come and gone in the long and sometimes pitiless history of the planet, we'd be the agents of our own destruction. The good news is, a creature powerful enough to author its own demise is also smart enough to avoid it. The Fate of the Species tells both sides of that very big tale and does so with honesty, wisdom—and more than a little hope.” —Jeff Kluger, author of The Sibling Effect

“The Fate of the Species somehow manages to frighten, amuse and enlighten all at the same time. It isn't about doom as much as the opportunity for the human race to come up with a happier ending to its story. Fred Guterl reveals how science can be by turns heroic, dangerous and helpless, and he proves a thoughtful, even-handed and sometimes playful guide to the risks that we ourselves have created. The news is sobering, but also fascinating and in some ways surprisingly uplifting.” —David Freedman, author of Wrong

From the Publisher

Guterl (executive editor, Scientific American) presents a look at the myriad ways humans and human technology could create disasters that might cause our own extinction. By starting with nonthreatening examples of scientific research (e.g., reversing the process of algae accumulation in ponds or developing artificial intelligence for Mars rovers), Guterl guides readers to more complex ideas chapter by chapter, such as disappearing lakes and oceans as well as the threat of cyberattacks. Each chapter covers a different area where human invention has backfired: superviruses, local species extinction, climate change, ecosystem fluctuations, biotechnology, and computers and other machines. VERDICT A good update to older books that have covered the same topic such as Edward O. Wilson's The Future of Life or Richard E. Leakey's The Sixth Extinction, this title also provides a solid overview of many polarizing issues, urging a balance of nature and technology to solve the problems humans have created. For readers invested in the future of the planet.—Margaret Henderson, Virginia Commonwealth Univ. Lib., Richmond

Library Journal

A fine scientific explanation of our abuse of the natural world that, despite the subtitle, does not explain how to stop it. Scientific American executive editor Guterl begins by discussing mass extinction, a process that has occurred half-a-dozen times over life's 2.5-billion-year history, eliminating up to 90 percent of species. The survivors thrived, and the current mass extinction (already in progress) may not eliminate the human species, but the consequences will be dismal. With frequent detours into discussions of terrorism, the author describes the science behind a dozen potential disasters provoked by a combination of sheer human numbers and technological advances. Deadly plagues are inevitable as microbes jump back and forth between animals and humans; if these natural mutations don't produce a superbug, genetic engineering (perhaps by a clever terrorist) might do the same. Guterl portrays global warming, now under way, with vivid specifics on rising sea levels, melting ice caps, vanishing fresh water and increasingly unstable weather. Widespread famine predicted by doomsayers isn't yet happening, but food prices are rising. The obligatory hopeful finale mentions eliminating carbon-based fuels, doing without energy-consuming conveniences and living in harmony with nature--though the author admits these measures are unlikely to be undertaken. Dramatic advances in genetically engineered plants and animals, atmospheric coolants, small-scale local, energy-efficient agriculture and massive carbon-sequestration will work when they arrive--but none have arrived yet. Aside from too many lurid terrorist scenarios, this is an intelligent account of the mess we are making of the planet; the unsettling conclusion: that humans may survive because we are resilient, not because we can fix matters.

Kirkus Reviews