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The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
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Overview
As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal effectively with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price.
In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects-describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Instead of the usual ...