The Future of Terrorism: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Alt-Right

by Walter Laqueur, Christopher Wall

Overview

An expert on terrorism and an expert on counterterrorism answer the two questions everyone is asking about the rise of terrorism today: why is this happening, and when will it end?

Since the death of bin Laden in 2011, ISIS has risen, al-Qaeda has expanded its reach, and right-wing extremists have surged in the United States for the same simple reason: terrorism works. It’s not caused by psychosis or irrationality, as the media often suggests. Instead, it’s terrifyingly logical. Violent acts produce political results.

To show why, Walter Laqueur and Christopher Wall explore the history, rationales and precepts of terrorism, from the assassination of Tsar Alexander II, through the terror campaigns by Irish and Indian nationalists, and to the Nazis and Italian Fascists.

To explain why terror is on the rise again, they show how the American invasion of Iraq created the conditions for the emergence of al-Qaeda in Iraq, part of which metastasized into ISIS, while Russia’s increasing intervention in Syria allowed both of the organizations to evolve.

The Future of Terrorism brings reason to a topic usually ruled by fear. Laqueur and Wall show the structural features behind contemporary terrorism: how bad governance abets terror; the link between poverty and terrorism; why religious terrorism is more dangerous than secular; and the nature of supposed “lone wolf” terrorists. Fear alone provides no tools to combat the future of terrorism. This book does.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781250890023
Publisher:	St. Martin's Publishing Group
Publication date:	07/03/2018
Pages:	272
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.61(d)

About the Author

WALTER LAQUEUR served as the director of the Institute of Contemporary History in London and concurrently the chairman of the International Research Council of CSIS in Washington for 30 years. He was also a professor at Georgetown University and the author of more than twenty-five books on Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. He has had articles published in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and countless other newspapers worldwide. His books include The Last Days of Europe and After the Fall.

Christopher Wall is a cyber-security analyst focusing on emerging technologies, artificial intelligence, and data analytics to improve intelligence collection. He is an instructor for the Navy, teaching courses on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency.

Christopher is the co-author, with Walter Laqueur, of The Future of Terrorism.

Table of Contents

Introduction: Terrorism and Its Future 1

The Changes Wrought by the Fourth Wave 7

Part I History and the Invention of Terrorism

1 The History and Emergence of Modern Terrorism 27

2 Writings on Tyranny and the Origins of the Philosophy of the Bomb 42

Russia's Terrorism as a Doctrine 53

3 Turkey, India, and the Russian Example 62

Terrorism by Indian Nationalists and Former Pacifists 64

4 Propaganda by the Deed 68

Arms and the Class Struggle: Spain and the United States 72

1 Terrorism and Nationalism 75

5 The Philosophy of the Bomb and the Far Right 78

The Right Wing Elsewhere 80

The History of Terrorism 84

6 Final Remarks on the History of Terrorism 86

Part 2 Contemporary Terrorism

7 The New Face of Terrorism 93

Why Was IS Successful? 95

8 A Truncated History of IS 98

The Iraq War and the Emergence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq 100

How Iraqi Politics Created Islamic State 104

The Arab Spring, Al-Qaeda, and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria 108

The Jabhat Al-Nusra Threat, the Khorasan Group, and the Co-Optation of Islamic State's Credibility 110

Stymied Iraqi Reforms, Islamic, State's Decline Since 2014, and the Future of Terrorism 113

9 Beyond Islamic State 118

Religion and a Globalized Decentralized Ideology 121

Al-Qaeda and Islamic State: Battle of Egos in the Process of Final Victory 128

The (Not) Forever War: What Is Beyond Islamic State? 131

10 The Battlefields of the Future 132

Yemen: A Regional Cold War Fought Through Proxies 133

Libya: A Mosaic Civil War 139

Afghanistan: A Legacy of Failed State Reconstruction 146

Where to Next? 153

11 Terrorism in Europe and in the United States 155

The Lone-Wolf Phenomenon 156

The Foreign Fighter Flow 157

The Islamic State Threat to Europe 158

The Terrorism Threat in the United States 163

Terrorism Going Forward? 173

Part 3 Reflections on Terrorism

12 The Culture of Modern Terrorism 179

IS and the Nature of Evil 183

Jihad Cool 189

13 Terrorism Misinterpreted 194

Terrorism and the Psychiatrists 204

14 Economic Explanations of Terrorism 206

Terrorist Organizations as Industrial Activity 209

Why Is Terrorism Effective?: The Club Goods Theory 212

Terrorism as Theater and the Macro/Micro Divide Within Conflicts 214

The Economics of Terrorism 216

15 Religious Violence and Terrorism 219

Suicide Terrorism 225

Refugees 228

16 Terrorism: The Future 230

Lessons from the Current Wave of Terrorism 235

When Terrorism Prevails? 238

So What About This Current Wave of Terrorism? 241

Epilogue: Terrorism Under President Trump 245

Acknowledgments 253

Editorial Reviews

"A brief, fast-paced historical overview leads to probing and provocative ruminations on the multifarious factors that draw young men toward violence in the service of an ideology ... The authors’ nuanced perspective on a complex phenomenon will appeal to readers interested in what lies beyond the headlines." —Publishers Weekly

"Of considerable interest to the geopolitically inclined, as are all of Laqueur's many books." —Kirkus Reviews

From the Publisher

2018-05-01
The dean of terrorism studies (Putinism: Russia and Its Future with the West, 2015, etc.) examines trends in Islamist and alt-right acts of political violence.There is good news in Laqueur's prognosis, including the absence of another tsunami event like 9/11. For one thing, he notes, most acts of political terrorism occur in just five countries, and the number of victims is some 40 times less than that of heart attack victims. Still, he writes, that's 18,000 people per year—"17,958, to be precise," in 2013. Laqueur looks at his subject through the lens of the overall decline in violence that has so cheered Steven Pinker of late before getting into the meat of the matter: Terrorism is successful where government is faltering. "Terrorism," he writes, "is not an exogenous feature of the modern nation-state but rather a symptom of bad governance." In that light, the growth of alt-right violence has not yet blossomed into full-fledged terrorism in the United States, but the ingredients are there, including dog whistles from the sitting president. As the author notes, the alt-right shares with Islamism the call for "a homogenous society that absolutely rejects outsiders," a view that is wider spread in a time of rampant nationalism; it wouldn't take much to tip a certain element of followers from race-hate rhetoric to armed action. As for Islamism, Laqueur argues that the Trump administration is feeding right into the narrative of the U.S. as a "crusader" power through such blunders as pushing to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel, maligning and discriminating against Muslims with a broad brush, and otherwise subscribing to the discredited "clash of civilizations" thesis. The bad news, then, is that while political violence may be lessening, it won't disappear anytime soon.Of considerable interest to the geopolitically inclined, as are all of Laqueur's many books.

Kirkus Reviews