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From tomorrow morning's weather, to football results, to political elections, we all sometimes obsess about predictions. Nate Silver's new release demystifies the subject of predictions, explaining why even veteran professional prognosticators often get it wrong. A brisk reader that doesn't require a calculator or an advanced degree.
popscipopulizer
Posted October 4, 2012
*A full executive summary of this book will be available at newbooksinbrief . wordpress . com, on or before Monday, October 15, 2012. Making decisions based on an assessment of future outcomes is a natural and inescapable part of the human condition. Indeed, as Nate Silver points out, "prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed--and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome" (loc. 285). And over and above these private decisions, prognosticating does, of course, bleed over into the public realm; as indeed whole industries from weather forecasting, to sports betting, to financial investing are built on the premise that predictions of future outcomes are not only possible, but can be made reliable. As Silver points out, though, there is a wide discrepancy across industries and also between individuals regarding just how accurate these predictions are. In his new book `The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't' Silver attempts to get to the bottom of all of this prediction-making to uncover what separates the accurate from the misguided. In doing so, the author first takes us on a journey through financial crashes, political elections, baseball games, weather reports, earthquakes, disease epidemics, sports bets, chess matches, poker tables, and the good ol' American economy, as we explore what goes into a well-made prediction and its opposite. The key teaching of this journey is that wise predictions come out of self-awareness, humility, and attention to detail: lack of self-awareness causes us to make predictions that tell us what we'd like to hear, rather than what is true (or most likely the case); lack of humility causes us to feel more certain than is warranted, leading us to rash decisions; and lack of attention to detail (in conjunction with self-serving bias and rashness) leads us to miss the key variables that make all the difference. Attention to detail is what we need to capture the signal in the noise (the key variable[s] in the sea of data and information that are integral in determining future outcomes), but without self-awareness and humility, we don't even stand a chance. In the final stage of the book Silver explores how the lessons that he lays out can be applied to such issues as global warming, terrorism and bubbles in financial markets. Unfortunately, each of these fields is a lot noisier than many of us would like to think (thus making them very difficult to predict precisely). Nevertheless, the author argues, within each there are certain signals that can help us make better predictions regarding them, and which should help make the world a safer and more livable place. If you are hoping that this book will make you a fool-proof prognosticator, you are going to be disappointed. A key tenet of the book is that this is simply not possible (no matter what field you are in). That being said, Silver makes a very strong argument that by applying a few simple principles (and putting in a lot of hard work in identifying key variables) our predictive powers should take a great boost indeed. A full executive summary of this book will be available at newbooksinbrief . wordpress . com, on or before Monday, October 15; a podcast discussion of the book will be available shortly thereafter.
21 out of 25 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Anonymous
Posted October 27, 2012
Silver draws on a wide range of activities with examples from poker, sports, finance, etc. that involve his own experiences and interviews with others. His goal is to uncover significant principles and factors and not to expound a specific theory. The book is well organized and easy to read.
4 out of 5 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.ProfJane
Posted January 23, 2013
I teach probability and statistics and really wanted to like this book, but Nate Silver is NOT on expert on statistics and probability and makes some pretty big errors as a consequence. Chapter 8 completely fails in its explanation of the controversy between classical and Bayesian methods. In other chapters, Silver seems to believe that anyone who revises his/her beliefs based on new information is using Bayes's theorem. Bayes's theorem involves reasoning based on how likely the information is if the hypothesis is true versus how likely the information is if the hypothesis is false.
2 out of 3 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Anonymous
Posted November 20, 2012
Silver does a great job in many areas of his book but seems to have a difficult time separating his political beliefs from the science he presents. If you can get past his obvious political biases you will find this a great read. Just be prepared to shut off the part of your mind that keeps wanting to point out that he contradicts his own premise on many occasions. If he edited out his political statements I would rate this a 5.
2 out of 9 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Anonymous
Posted October 25, 2012
Great readiing but Nook Simple does not hold the page location or sync it with any other Nook and vice versa. Very annoying.
2 out of 8 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.steady
Posted November 30, 2012
Still reading; it's a bit of a slow read but Mr. Silver has a very active mind. Fascinating to read where it takes us as readers. Not what I expected at all...!
1 out of 2 people found this review helpful.
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Posted May 22, 2013
Despite calm words about even-handedness, the climate controversy chapter only interviews the alarmists, not skeptical scientists such as Richard Lindzen, Judith Curry, or the Pielkes. It suggests SIlver doesn't know much more about the topic than what he reads in the New York Times. Doesn't bode well for the credibility of the rest of the book.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Georgia_writer
Posted March 27, 2013
A very well-written and fascinating presentation on why some predictions work and many others fail. If you're at all interested in politics, economics, disease spread, terrorism, the stock market, weather, earthquakes, baseball, chess or poker you'll be captivated by The Signal and the Noise. I'm primarily a fiction reader, but found this book to be as much or more of a page turner than many "thrillers." Although the book is written for the layman, you'll have an easier time with it if you have a solid grounding in fundamental mathematics and statistics. Bottom line: if you're curious about the world we live in and why some events are easier to predict than others, I highly recommend this book.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.BeeMD
Posted February 1, 2013
I was inspired to do some research on Bayes' theorem after finishing the text. Footnotes and references make up a large part of the book, but are gathered at the end, not within the text.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Anonymous
Posted January 25, 2013
Nate Silver, has taken time out to write an eye opening book.
Before reading this book I had taken prediction for granted, but after reading it, I have come to appreciate the effort that goes into prediction and also how we are surrounded with predictions.
It has also helped improve my prediction ability, because those that predict rightly, controls the future and ultimately wins in the long run.
Anonymous
Posted January 19, 2013
Great book
0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Excusemesir
Posted January 18, 2013
I finished reading "The Signal and the Noise" a couple of weeks ago, and although I enjoyed it as I read it, I find that it is already fading into the background of other related books that I have read. Occasionally I come across a book that requires re-reading and pondering, but this is not one of them. On the other hand, if you are new to this discussion, Mr. Silver does a good job of organizing and summarizing the problems with making accurate and reliable predictions.
My summary of the book (and of the field of predicting the future): Predict that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and you will have a very high accuracy rate, but you'll be BOOOOORRRIIINNNGG. Predict great and dramatic changes, and you will usually miss, but if you do it in an authoritative and entertaining fashion, you'll get lots of attention anyway.
Anonymous
Posted January 15, 2013
Some very interesting and useful concepts are explained. In particular the usefulness of Bayes Theorum for refining predictions is clearly set forth. The book needs editing. The same ground seems to be covered over and over. If you are short of time you could read just those chapters that deal with an area of your interest: gambling, weather, epidemics, or terrorism. I predict that 20% of those who start the book will not finish it.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.NewsieQ
Posted January 11, 2013
Nate Silver is the wunderkind who accurately predicted how each state would vote in the 2012 presidential election. So he has more than a little authority when it comes to predictions. The Signal and the Noise is a fascinating read, with great examples from many fields in which predictions are the order of the day – from weather forecasting to baseball to poker to political punditry. I particularly liked his take on how the “smartest minds” on PBS’s The McLaughlin Group go so far astray in their predictions … and why. Although this book prompted to dust off my rusty algebra skills to figure out and use Bayes’s theorem, most of it was a pretty easy read. I was disappointed to find so many little errors in the book (the misspelling of the word “mammogram” is just one example). When a book relies heavily on accuracy, it’s a shame when the copy editors don’t show up for work. Anyone who wants to understand how Mitt Romney’s pollsters got it so wrong (it’s likely they were “hedgehogs” and not “foxes”) needs only to read The Signal and the Noise.
0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.Anonymous
Posted December 30, 2012
To be fair i don't really think this is a book you would want to read because it is stupid. I just read it and I thought it was boring and all that. So I reccomend that you DO NOT read this book. Unless you want to be bored out of your mind
0 out of 14 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.There can be know doubt that the author is an expert in his subject matter, that of probabilities and statistics. Silver is justifiably a star in his chosen fields, specifically baseball statistics and election forecasting. In the final analysis, his grasp of his subject matter is more advanced than his ability to organize and convey his lessons.
Rich in sound analysis and valuable lessons on predictions and forecasting, this book is a worthwhile read. Nevertheless, it is hurt by occassional ramblings and redundancies. For example, early in the book Silver dedicates a great many pages to discrediting the predictive skills of television pundits vis-a-vis election outcomes. Silver addresses the pundits' predictions as if they are made with a wholehearted attempt at accuracy. Only much later in the book does Silver acknowledge that it is not their primary interest to give rock-solid predictions based on sound methodology. And even then, he only gives short shrift to the fact that these pundits are merely television entertainers who seek to make partisan viewers feel good about their own political inclinations. Silver's extensive analysis of these political predictions is a waste of time, in the final analysis.
None of this is to say that Silver is a poor writer. His writing style is clear and engrossing. Perhaps he will consider reorganizing this book for a second edition. In truth, it could be made far better, and even perhaps into a classic of its genre.
0 out of 1 people found this review helpful.
Was this review helpful? Yes NoThank you for your feedback. Report this reviewThank you, this review has been flagged.greyhound_lvr
Posted November 30, 2012
Really like Mr. Silver's appreciation for reality vs. BS!
0 out of 2 people found this review helpful.
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Posted May 21, 2013
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Posted January 7, 2013
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Posted December 7, 2012
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Overview
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York...