Timing the Market: How to Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators

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Overview

The first definitive guide to understanding and profiting from the relationship between the stock market and interest rates

It's well established that interest rates significantly impact the stock market. This is the first book that definitively explores the interest rate/stock market relationship and describes a specific system for profiting from the relationship. Timing the Market provides an historically proven system, rooted in fundamental economics, that allows investors ...

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Overview

The first definitive guide to understanding and profiting from the relationship between the stock market and interest rates

It's well established that interest rates significantly impact the stock market. This is the first book that definitively explores the interest rate/stock market relationship and describes a specific system for profiting from the relationship. Timing the Market provides an historically proven system, rooted in fundamental economics, that allows investors and traders to forecast the stock market using data from the interest rate markets-together with supporting market sentiment and cultural indicators-to pinpoint and profit from major turns in the stock market.

Deborah Weir (Greenwich, CT) is President of Wealth Strategies, a firm that does marketing for traditional money managers and hedge funds. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst and is the first woman president of the Stamford CFA Society.

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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9780471708988
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • Publication date: 11/4/2005
  • Series: Wiley Trading Series , #235
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 432
  • Sales rank: 1,209,156
  • Product dimensions: 9.00 (w) x 6.00 (h) x 1.13 (d)

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments.

Introduction.

PART I: Yield Curve Analysis.

Chapter 1: Demystifying the Investment World.

Chapter 2: Back of the Envelope Forecast Model.

Chapter 3: Money Markets Matter.

Chapter 4: Long-Term Bonds Give Advance Warning.

Chapter 5: Expected Returns for the Stock Market.

Chapter 6: Bond Quality Spreads.

Chapter 7: Federal Funds Rates.

Chapter 8: Summary of Yield Curve Analysis.

PART II: Technical Analysis.

Chapter 9: Market Breadth: Advancing Issues in the Dow.

Chapter 10: The Volatility Index.

Chapter 11: The Put/Call Ratio.

Chapter 12: Moving Averages.

Chapter 13: Using Moving Averages: The MACD Line.

Chapter 14: Leverage: Short Positions and Margin Debt.

Chapter 15: Summary of Technical Analysis.

PART III: Cultural Indicators.

Chapter 16: Changing Standards of Feminine Beauty.

Chapter 17: Demographics.

Chapter 18: Corporate Spending.

Chapter 19: War and Rumors of War.

Chapter 20: Summary of Cultural Indicators.

PART IV: Choosing Investments.

Chapter 21: Asset Classes.

Chapter 22: Mutual Funds.

Chapter 23: Exchange-Traded Funds.

Chapter 24: Security Selection.

Chapter 25: Final Summary.

PART V: Capitalism at Work.

Chapter 26: Outrageous Wall Street Stories.

Chapter 27: America! America! God Shed His Grace on Thee.

APPENDIXES.

2.1 Yield Curves and the S&P 500 Index, 1960–2004.

2.2 Chapter 2 Return Calculations.

3.1 U.S. Treasury Bill Spreads, 1960–2004.

3.2 Chapter 3 Return Calculations.

6.1 Speculative Bond Spreads (Ba1 and Lower Rated), 1991–2003.

7.1 Federal Funds Rates during 1987, 1998, 2001 Bear Markets.

7.2 Chapter 7 Return Calculations.

8.1 Ten-Year Note Total Return Index, 1960–2004.

9.1 All 30 Dow Industrial Stocks Fell on July 19, 2002.

9.2 Chapter 9 Return Calculations.

16.1 Playmate of the Year, S&P 500 Index, and the Russell 2000 Index, 1960–2000.

16.2 Monthly Playmates and the S&P 500 Index, 1982–2004.

19.1 Gross Domestic Product and War, 1800–2004.

19.2 S&P 500 Index and War, 1800–2004.

19.3 War in Iraq and the S&P 500 Index, 1990–1991.

19.4 War in Iraq and the S&P 500 Index, 2002–2003.

19.5 Chapter 19 Return Calculations, 1960–2002.

20.1 Part Three Return Calculations, 1960–2005.

21.1 Changes in Housing Prices, 1970–2004.

21.2 Returns Including Treasury Bills, 1960–2004.

21.3 Year-End Prices of Gold, 1800–2004.

21.4 Returns Including Gold, 1974–2004.

21.5 Euro Exchange Rates and U.S. Business Cycles, 1969–2004.

23.1 Gold and Nasdaq Return Calculations, 1974–2004.

23.2 Nasdaq Composite, 1984–2005.

24.1 Nasdaq and Centex Return Calculations, 1990–2005.

24.2 Nasdaq and Placer Dome Return Calculations, 1990–2005.

Sources and Suggested Reading.

Index.

About the Author.

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  • Posted February 28, 2014

    I Also Recommend:

    I am currently reading Deborah Weir's book for the second time a

    I am currently reading Deborah Weir's book for the second time and find it very insightful.   The book presents clear and compelling ideas about how yield curve, economy, and market interact.  Having a conceptual framework for evaluating market tops and bottoms provides an edge to the everyday investor.  Her supplemental materials (from private tutoring and her online blog) clearly illustrate how yield curve and other indicators apply to the events of today's market environment.   Many thanks to the author for her enjoyable and clear rendition.   

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  • Anonymous

    Posted November 20, 2005

    Excellent trading foundation!

    This work provides an excellent,professional grounding for one's approach to the markets. The theoretical basis for this foundation is ongoing analysis and interpretation of the U. S. treasury yield curve, bond quality spreads, and movements of the federal funds rate. The author's exposition of the yield curve is the best I've seen. She divides her analysis of the yield curve into short-term money market segments, the traditional spread between ten year bonds and three month bills, and longer-term bonds. Each of these segments affords the analyst important information as to the the present and anticipated state of the economy -- which determines the earnings expectations that drive markets. The second section of this book affords a somewhat different take on technical analysis than is usually encountered. The author explains how to use the volatility index (VIX) and the put/call spread as indications of short-to-intermediate term market turning points. She also indicates how margin debt and short interest levels can be used to reveal long-term market highs and lows. The third section of the book describes cultural and demographic methods for gauging the market climate. These methods are qualitative only subject to interpretational error and questionable in the separation 'fact' from one's psychological projection. However, used strictly as adjuncts to yield curve analysis and technical indicator confirmation, they can be quite useful as further confirming tools. The fourth section describes how to use market timing in a profitable, top-down approach to riding the business cycle through rotation from fixed-income investments into equities, then hard assets, foreign currencies, and back into fixed-income instruments. The author details how intelligent asset rotation leads to more favorable portfolio results than does buy-and-hold over the long run. The market timing model which the author evolves over the course of the book substantially beats a buy-and-hold portfolio and does so while experiencing less volatility. The timing model's rationality, operations, and results are clearly explained and documented to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of her approach. This book is well-written. Its thesis is logical well-developed and supported with numerous examples, data, and around sixty pages of appendices. I feel that its methodology will help investors understand and identify forces which move markets as well as avoid those traps of crowd psychology which lead to participation in mass buying at market tops and mass selling at bottoms. This work is an interesting, original contribution to the literature of markets!

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