Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs / Edition 1

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While cities ruled the first half of the twentieth century, the second half belonged to the suburbs. Tomorrow’s Cities, Tomorrow’s Suburbs answers the question of which will dominate in the twenty-first century. 

William H. Lucy and David L. Phillips assess the contemporary struggle between urban hubs and suburban outposts, documenting the signs of resurgence in cities and the omens of suburban decline. Using clues about the life cycles of cities and suburbs, from changing income rates to perceptions of crime, Tomorrow’s Cities, Tomorrow’s Suburbs punctures myths about the relative health of cities and suburbs; offers insights into the influence of housing, racial segregation, immigration, and poverty on population changes in cities and suburbs; and examines popular perceptions—and misperceptions—about cities and suburbs that similarly affect settlement patterns. 

Suggesting that urban decline can be halted and even reversed, Tomorrow’s Cities, Tomorrow’s Suburbs offers practical suggestions for local planners, officials, and citizens as they work to create an environment in which both cities and suburbs thrive.

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Editorial Reviews

New Urban News - Philip Langdon
"One of the main purposes of Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs is to challenge the popular beliefs that have encouraged conventional suburban development. This they do quite well. . . . Lucy and Phillips possess an impressively comprehensive understanding of trends affecting metropolitan development, and they appreciate many things that new urbanists value: mixed uses, mixed incomes, walkable neighborhoods, access to transit among them. This combination makes Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs an excellent planning resource."
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Product Details

  • ISBN-13: 9781932364149
  • Publisher: American Planning Association (Planners Press)
  • Publication date: 6/1/2006
  • Edition description: New Edition
  • Edition number: 1
  • Pages: 376
  • Product dimensions: 7.13 (w) x 10.24 (h) x 0.69 (d)

Meet the Author

William H. Lucy is professor of urban and environmental planning at the University of Virginia. David L. Phillips is associate professor of urban and environmental planning at the University of Virginia. Both authors are members of the American Institute of Certified Planners.

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Table of Contents

List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Maps
List of Acronyms
1.  Is the Past Prologue for Change?
Disparities in Relative Income
Growth, Sprawl, and Disparities
Housing Markets, Mobility, and Federal Policies
Consumerism and Careerism
Local Government Development Decisions
Tyranny of Easy Development Decisions
Beliefs and Public Policies
Order of Chapters
Beliefs and Practice
2.  Too Little Housing in Policy Critiques
Land Consumption
Poverty Concentrations
Taxable Resource Inequalities
Racial Segregation in Suburbs
Market Tests and Spatial Inequalities
Proposed Remedies
Mega-Decisions and Daily Life
Decisions and Small-Scale Policies
3.  Exaggerating City Population Decline
Twentieth-Century Trends
Population and Occupied Housing Changes
Cities' Evolution from 1950 to 1970
Downtown Population Changes
Racial Change
Population and Housing in 50 States
Variation by Size and Region
Beliefs and Preferences
Demand Increased
4.  Housing and Cities' Prospects
Summary of Findings
The Relative Income Measure
Disparities between Cities and Suburbs
542 Cities
Region and Population
Nonstable Cities
White Flight?
Home Ownership
Relative Income in Six Central Cities
Poverty in Cities
Concentrated Neighborhood Poverty
Single-Unit Structures and Home Ownership
Single-Unit Structures and Relative Income
Small Houses, Ownership, and Relative Income
Housing Past and Future
Post-2000 Trends in Cities
5.  Scoping Suburban Decline
Summary of Results
Suburban Dominance
City Decline and Metropolitan Growth
Ring, Sector, and Scattered Population Decline
Population Size in Suburbs
Severe Suburban Population Loss
Prospects for Increasing Density
Suburban Density
Suburban Decline in the 1960s and 1970s
Average Household Size, Families with Children, and the Elderly
High Elderly Populations
Average Household Size and Occupied Housing Units
Suburban Trends
6.  Discovering Poor Suburbs
Summary of Findings
Relative Income Conditions and Trends
Regions and Growth Matter Little
Spatial Patterns
Growing Suburbs and Metropolitan Areas
Population Size and Income Changes
City and Suburb Incomes
The Lowest Relative Income Suburbs
Poverty in Suburbs
Poverty in Suburban Neighborhoods
Income Changes in the 1980s and 1990s
Decline in Old and Middle-Aged Suburbs
Volatility in Suburbs
Suburban Income Change Variations
Metropolitan Profiles of Income Changes
Summary and Interpretation
7.  Do Middle-Aged Suburbs Need to Reinvent Themselves?
Summary of Findings
Three Theories:  Population, Contagion, and Age of Housing
Describing and Explaining Income Transitions
Scale and Time
Decade of Housing Construction and Relative Income Changes
Factors in Differentiating Neighborhoods
8.  Discovering Virtues of Old Neighborhoods
Units of Analysis
Relative Income and Decade of Construction
Neighborhood Life Cycles
Income Increases in Neighborhoods in the 1980s and 1990s
Evidence for Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change
Counting Census Tracts
Comparing the 1990s and 1980s
Which Old Neighborhoods Increased in Relative Income
Differences among Metropolitan Areas
Summary of Trends
Impending Suburban Triumph from a 1950 Perspective
9.  Linking Patterns, Beliefs, and Policies
A Policy Debate about Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change
Influences on Preferences
Conditions and Ideas Influence Beliefs and Actions
Consumer Preferences for Neighborhood Settings
Crime Rates Fell in the 1990s
Beliefs about Health and Motor Vehicle Safety
Demography Alters the Distribution of Location Preferences
Results Matter
Myths and Mega-Decisions
10.  The Cul-de-Sac Safety Myth: Housing Markets and Settlement Patterns
The Issue
Effects of Street Networks on Safety
11.  The Myth of Exurban Safety and Rational Location Decisions
Comparative Danger
Homicides, Violent Crime, and Traffic Fatalities
Low Density, Speed, and Traffic Deaths
Homicides by Family Members, Acquaintances, and Strangers
Traffic Fatality Rates in Cities, Suburbs, and Exurbs
Narrow Roads and Aggressive Driving
Awareness of Dangers
Misinformation, Miscalculations, and misdirected Emotions
Danger of Leaving Home
Fear of Crime
Sex, Insurance, and Traffic Information
12.  The Past and Future of Small House Neighborhoods
Contemporary "Happy" Residence Beliefs
New House Profiles
Why Small House Expansion and Adaptation is Difficult
Why the Suburbs' Mid-Life Crisis May Get Worse
Institutions and Finance
A Case Study of Problems, Opportunities, and Policies
Relative Income and Family Poverty
Reversal of Neighborhood Trends and Age of Housing
Henrico's 60 Census Tracts
What Happened in Small House Neighborhoods?
Henrico's Public Policy Responses
Central City Versus Suburban Prospects
13.  Can Local Policies Make a Difference?
Downtown Revival Despite Sprawl
Charlottesville's Downtown Revival and Beyond
Transit-Oriented Development
Arlington and Alexandria
Middle-Class Location Decisions and Small Houses
Chicago's Historic Bungalows
Single-Unit Dwellings
Condominiums Increase Ownership
Enhancing Decentralized Decisions
Investments Decisions
14.  Prospects for Stability and Revival
Variation and Uncertainty
Beliefs Relevant to Location Decisions
Beliefs, Roles, and Policies
Markets and Decentralized Decisions
Where Next?

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